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State election Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (20 September 2026): SPD receives more than 28.0% of votes cast

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 16. September 2026 · Predicted for 20. September 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern

Probability

70%

Infratest dimap and INSA (September 2026, cited via Wirtschaftswoche) put the SPD in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern at 32% (AfD 35–37%, Greens 5%, BSW 4%). The SPD benefits from Minister-President Manuela Schwesig's sustained high personal popularity in the state – she achieved a historic 39.6% in 2021 – placing the party far above the national SPD trend. The 28% threshold represents the lower end of the polling confidence interval (±4 pp) and would imply a loss of ~12 pp vs 2021. The open Cassandra predictions for MV (AfD >35%, CDU >12%, FDP <5%) are arithmetically compatible with an SPD result above 28%. No Polymarket/Kalshi market prices available for MV party results.

Data basis for this prediction

Infratest dimap Landtagstrend MV (September 2026, via infratest-dimap.de): SPD 32 %, AfD 36 %
INSA Umfrage MV (September 2026, via wiwo.de): AfD 35–37 %, SPD 32 % (+3 Pp)
Landeswahlleiter MV: Amtliches Ergebnis Landtagswahl 2021: SPD 39,6 %, AfD 17,7 %

Verdict: Hit

Die SPD erzielte bei der Landtagswahl Mecklenburg-Vorpommern am 20. September 2026 laut Wikipedia und politpro.eu 35,5 % der abgegebenen Stimmen – deutlich über dem Schwellenwert von 28,0 %. Die AfD gewann die Wahl mit 38,2 %, Die Linke kam auf 6,5 %, die Grünen auf 5,7 %, die CDU auf 4,9 % (ohne Sitze). Quellen: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Mecklenburg-Vorpommern_state_election und https://politpro.eu/en/mecklenburg-western-pomerania/election/parliament/2026

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