🏛️ Politics · Next Month

State election Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (20 September 2026): SPD achieves more than 28.0% of votes cast

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 28. August 2026 · Predicted for 20. September 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle

Probability

65%

Current polls (INSA, Infratest dimap, as of 13 August 2026) give SPD 29% under Minister-President Manuela Schwesig, who remains highly popular in MV, decoupling the state result from weaker federal SPD trends (~18–22% nationally). The 28% threshold sits one point below the polling mean; with typical ±3 pp polling error, achievement is likely but not certain. AfD 36% and Linke 11% (both open predictions) are consistent with this SPD estimate.

Data basis for this prediction

Infratest dimap / t-online.de: SPD 29% MV (Erhebung 2.–6. Juli 2026)
INSA: SPD 29% MV (August 2026, wahlrecht.de/dawum.de)
Gesamtbild: AfD 36%, SPD 29%, Linke 11%, CDU 10%, Grüne 5%, BSW 4%, FDP 3% (dawum.de, 28.08.2026)
Landtagswahl MV 2021: SPD 39,6% (Vergleich: deutlich stärker als Bundestrend)

Verdict: Hit

Die SPD erzielte bei der Landtagswahl Mecklenburg-Vorpommern am 20. September 2026 laut vorläufigem amtlichem Endergebnis 35,5% der Stimmen (Quelle: Landeswahlleiter MV, laiv-mv.de; bestätigt durch Wikipedia und landtag-mv.de). Die Schwelle von 28,0% wurde damit deutlich um 7,5 Prozentpunkte übertroffen. Die Vorhersage trat ein – die SPD unter Manuela Schwesig schlug sogar die Umfrageerwartungen von ~29% erheblich, verlor aber dennoch die Wahl gegen die AfD (38,2%). Die Vorhersage war also konservativ: Der tatsächliche SPD-Wert lag weit über der angesetzten Hürde.

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