MV State Election (September 20, 2026): BSW wins less than 5.0% and fails to clear the electoral threshold
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 9. September 2026
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Predicted for 20. September 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
BSW polls at approximately 4.0% in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (politpro.eu, September 2026). The gap to the 5% threshold is one percentage point – within polling error, so entry is not impossible. Structurally, BSW has shown nationwide poll decline since the 2025 Bundestag result. No open prediction covers BSW in MV. Confirmed by Landeswahlleiter MV or tagesschau.de by September 21, 2026.
Data basis for this prediction
- politpro.eu: MV Landtagswahl Umfragen September 2026 – BSW 4,0 %
- Wikipedia: 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election – polling data
- Landeswahlleiter MV: Sperrklausel 5 %, §3 LWahlG MV
Verdict: Hit
BSW erzielte bei der Landtagswahl Mecklenburg-Vorpommern am 20. September 2026 exakt 4,8 % und scheiterte damit knapp an der 5-%-Sperrklausel. Die Vorhersage (< 5,0 %, kein Einzug in den Landtag) trat damit ein. Quellen: wikipedia.org/wiki/Landtagswahl_in_Mecklenburg-Vorpommern_2026, wahlrecht.de, zdfheute.de.
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