Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election (20 September 2026): BSW (Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht) fails to clear the 5% threshold and does not enter the state parliament
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 12. September 2026
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Predicted for 20. September 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
In current MV-specific polls (as of September 11, 2026: AfD 38%, SPD 33%, Linke 10%, CDU 7%, Greens 5%), BSW is not listed explicitly in any survey — a strong signal that the party is below the ~3% display threshold. BSW has been holding ~4–5% in federal polls but is structurally weak in MV: no regional organisation, no prominent local candidates, no current seat in Schwerin. MV is not a BSW stronghold. No Polymarket market available.
Data basis for this prediction
- Forsa/WiWo MV-Umfrage 11.09.2026: AfD 38 %, SPD 33 %, Linke 10 %, CDU 7 %, Grüne 5 % – BSW nicht gelistet (wiwo.de / wahlrecht.de)
- BSW national Sep 2026: ~4–5 % Bundesschnitt (Infratest dimap Bundestrend)
- MV-Wahlrecht: 5-%-Sperrklausel für Einzug in Schweriner Landtag gültig
Verdict: Hit
BSW erzielte bei der Landtagswahl Mecklenburg-Vorpommern am 20. September 2026 exakt 4,8 % und verfehlte damit die 5-%-Hürde um nur 0,2 Prozentpunkte – der Einzug in den Schweriner Landtag blieb aus. Die Vorhersage trat damit ein. Bestätigt u.a. durch Wikipedia (Landtagswahl in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern 2026), bpb.de und ZDFheute. Auch CDU scheiterte knapp (4,9 %). In den Landtag zogen ein: AfD (38,2 %), SPD (35,5 %), Linke (6,5 %) und Grüne (5,7 %).
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