🏛️ Politics · Next Week

Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election (September 20, 2026): AfD wins more than 35.0% of votes cast (confirmed by state electoral authority or tagesschau.de by September 21, 2026)

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 16. September 2026 · Predicted for 20. September 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern

Probability

77%

All four latest polls (early September 2026) place the AfD clearly above the 35% threshold: Infratest dimap 38%, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 37%, Pollytix 36%, INSA 36%. No pollster measures AfD below 36%, so the minimum reading still clears the threshold by one full percentage point. This prediction raises the bar from the already-covered '>30%' threshold. The SPD trails at 30–34%. A systematic cross-institute mobilization effect against the AfD would be required to push the result below 35%.

Data basis for this prediction

Infratest dimap (7.–9. Sep 2026): AfD 38 %, SPD 33 %, DIE LINKE 9 %, CDU 7 %
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen (7.–10. Sep 2026): AfD 37 %, SPD 34 %
Pollytix (8.–9. Sep 2026): AfD 36 %, SPD 30 %, DIE LINKE 12 %
INSA (1.–8. Sep 2026): AfD 36 %, SPD 33 %

Verdict: Hit

Die AfD erzielte bei der Landtagswahl Mecklenburg-Vorpommern am 20. September 2026 laut vorläufigem amtlichem Endergebnis 38,2 % der Stimmen – deutlich über dem Schwellenwert von 35,0 %. Die AfD wurde damit stärkste Kraft, während die CDU mit 4,9 % an der 5-%-Hürde scheiterte. Das Ergebnis bestätigte die Umfragelage (Infratest 38 %, FGW 37 %, Pollytix 36 %, INSA 36 %) ohne wesentliche Abweichung nach unten. Quellen: landtag-mv.de (vorläufiges amtliches Endergebnis), bpb.de Hintergrund aktuell, Wikipedia 'Landtagswahl in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern 2026'.

Related Predictions

🏛️ Politics ✦ AI

Alberto Núñez Feijóo (PP) secures parliamentary majority with Vox coalition and becomes Spanish Prime Minister — General Election 29 November 2026 (confirmed by Junta Electoral Central or AP by 1 December 2026)

Spain holds a general election on 29 November 2026. Polymarket prices Feijóo as next PM at 85%, Kalshi at 82% — both serve as anchors. A separate Polymarket market gives PP+Vox a 92% probability of a joint majority (>176/350 seats). Current polls (Sondaxe) show PP at 29.2% narrowly ahead of PSOE (26.9%); Vox is tracking slightly higher. Feijóo failed to form a government in 2023, but market odds reflect the lesson learned: PP+Vox is now seen as stable enough. No deviation from market anchor warranted.

83%

Next Month · Predicted for 29. Nov 2026

🏛️ Politics ✦ AI

Roger Wicker (Republican) retains the US Senate seat in Mississippi after recount — confirmed by AP or NBC News by 20 November 2026

With 97% of votes counted, Republican incumbent Roger Wicker leads by just 28 votes per NBC News live results (04.11.2026) — one of the closest Senate races in history. Mississippi election law requires an automatic recount when the margin falls below 0.5% of total votes, expected to conclude by 15–20 November. The remaining 3% of ballots originate primarily from rural precincts with historically higher Republican turnout, giving Wicker a slight statistical edge. No specific Polymarket market for Mississippi was identified.

55%

Next Month · Predicted for 20. Nov 2026

🏛️ Politics ✦ AI

Mary Peltola (Democrat) wins the US Senate seat in Alaska against Dan Sullivan (Republican) — US Midterm Elections November 3, 2026 (confirmed by AP or NBC News by November 5, 2026)

Polymarket gives Peltola a 72% win probability (as of November 3, 2026). The Democrat benefits from Alaska's Ranked Choice Voting system, which structurally favors cross-partisan candidates, as well as strong support from the Indigenous population and Alaska Native organizations. The national environment weighs on Sullivan: Polymarket gives Democrats a 72–77% probability of winning the Senate majority and 95% in the House. Early mail-ballot returns show a slight pro-Democratic lean in Alaska. Because Alaska uses ranked choice, a final count is not expected until November 5.

72%

Next Week · Predicted for 5. Nov 2026