🏛️ Politics · Next Week

Mecklenburg-Vorpommern State Election (September 20, 2026): AfD receives more than 34.0% of votes cast (confirmed by Landeswahlleiter MV or tagesschau.de by September 21, 2026)

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 12. September 2026 · Predicted for 20. September 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle

Probability

75%

Current Infratest dimap polls for ARD (September 2026) show the AfD in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern at 37–38%, only 3–5 points ahead of the SPD (33–34%). The AfD is thus the clear frontrunner, far above its 17.7% result in the 2021 state election. A result above 34% falls within the lower confidence interval of current polls; a collapse of more than 3–4 percentage points on election day is historically rare, especially since no 'shy-AfD-voter' effect has been documented in MV recently. SPD, BSW, and CDU pose no threat to AfD's lead. Estimated probability: 75%.

Data basis for this prediction

Infratest dimap für ARD, September 2026: AfD Mecklenburg-Vorpommern 37–38 % (infratest-dimap.de)
Wirtschaftswoche September 2026: 'AfD in Umfragen vorn, SPD holt auf' – AfD 37 %, SPD 34 % (wiwo.de)
Landtagswahl MV 2021: AfD 17,7 % – massiver Anstieg bis 2026 (Landeswahlleiter MV)
dawum.de Wahltrend #ltwmv: AfD konsistent 35–38 % in den letzten 6 Wochen (dawum.de)

Verdict: Hit

Die AfD erzielte bei der Landtagswahl Mecklenburg-Vorpommern am 20. September 2026 laut amtlichem Endergebnis 38,2 % der Stimmen – deutlich über dem Schwellenwert von 34,0 %. Sie wurde stärkste Kraft vor der SPD (35,5 %). Die Vorhersage trat damit klar ein. Quellen: Landtag MV (https://www.landtag-mv.de/aktuelles/artikel/landtagswahl-2026-vorlaeufiges-amtliches-endergebnis), bpb.de (https://www.bpb.de/kurz-knapp/hintergrund-aktuell/581565/landtagswahl-in-mecklenburg-vorpommern-2026-afd-staerkste-kraft-cdu-verfehlt-einzug-in-den-landtag/), Wikipedia EN (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Mecklenburg-Vorpommern_state_election).

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