🏛️ Politics
· Next Week
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern State Election (September 20, 2026): AfD receives more than 34.0% of votes cast (confirmed by Landeswahlleiter MV or tagesschau.de by September 21, 2026)
Probability
75%
Current Infratest dimap polls for ARD (September 2026) show the AfD in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern at 37–38%, only 3–5 points ahead of the SPD (33–34%). The AfD is thus the clear frontrunner, far above its 17.7% result in the 2021 state election. A result above 34% falls within the lower confidence interval of current polls; a collapse of more than 3–4 percentage points on election day is historically rare, especially since no 'shy-AfD-voter' effect has been documented in MV recently. SPD, BSW, and CDU pose no threat to AfD's lead. Estimated probability: 75%.
Data basis for this prediction
- Infratest dimap für ARD, September 2026: AfD Mecklenburg-Vorpommern 37–38 % (infratest-dimap.de)
- Wirtschaftswoche September 2026: 'AfD in Umfragen vorn, SPD holt auf' – AfD 37 %, SPD 34 % (wiwo.de)
- Landtagswahl MV 2021: AfD 17,7 % – massiver Anstieg bis 2026 (Landeswahlleiter MV)
- dawum.de Wahltrend #ltwmv: AfD konsistent 35–38 % in den letzten 6 Wochen (dawum.de)
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.