🏛️ Politics · Next Week

Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election (20 September 2026): AfD wins more than 34.0% of votes cast (confirmed by Landeswahlleiter MV or tagesschau.de by 21 September 2026)

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 10. September 2026 · Predicted for 20. September 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern

Probability

81%

The AfD leads consistently in MV between 35 and 38%: Infratest dimap (Sept 9) 38%, INSA (Sept 8) 36%, PolitPro aggregate 36.6%. Polymarket gives 79% odds that AfD wins more votes than SPD. SPD is catching up (31–33%) but remains well behind. A sub-34% result would require a collapse invisible in any current survey. Polymarket implies 44% probability of AfD landing in the 35–38% range and 32% for above 38%.

Data basis for this prediction

Infratest dimap (09.09.2026): AfD 38 %, SPD 33 %
INSA (08.09.2026): AfD 36 %, SPD 33 %
Polymarket: AfD mehr Stimmen als SPD in MV – 79 % (Stand 10.09.2026, Vol. 983K $)
PolitPro Aggregat MV: AfD 36,6 %, SPD 31,8 % (Stand 10.09.2026)

Verdict: Hit

Die AfD erzielte bei der Landtagswahl in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern am 20. September 2026 laut vorläufigem amtlichem Endergebnis des Landeswahlleiters MV 38,2 % der Stimmen – deutlich über dem Schwellenwert von 34,0 %. Die SPD kam auf 35,5 %, Die Linke auf 6,5 %, Grüne auf 5,7 %; CDU (4,9 %) und FDP (1,0 %) scheiterten an der 5-%-Hürde. Das Ergebnis liegt im Bereich der Umfragen (35–38 %) und bestätigt die Vorhersage klar. Quellen: Landtag MV (https://www.landtag-mv.de/aktuelles/artikel/landtagswahl-2026-vorlaeufiges-amtliches-endergebnis), BpB (https://www.bpb.de/kurz-knapp/hintergrund-aktuell/581565/landtagswahl-in-mecklenburg-vorpommern-2026-afd-staerkste-kraft-cdu-verfehlt-einzug-in-den-landtag/), Wikipedia (https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Landtagswahl_in_Mecklenburg-Vorpommern_2026).

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