🏛️ Politics · Next Month

Kristdemokraterna (KD, Sweden) receives more than 7.0% of votes cast in the Riksdag election on September 13, 2026 (confirmed by Valmyndigheten)

Miss ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 31. August 2026 · Predicted for 13. September 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern

Probability

63%

KD polls between 6.7% (PolitPro Trend Aug 28) and 8.5% (Demoskop Aug 24). Weighted average ~7.5%; the 7.0% threshold is achievable but not certain. Demoskop projects 31 Riksdag seats for KD. No Polymarket anchor for KD specifically. Uncertainty stems from the wide range between single poll (8.5%) and aggregated trend (6.7%). KD is part of the center-right bloc (Tidö coalition).

Data basis for this prediction

Demoskop-Umfrage KD: 8,5 % / 31 Sitze (24. August 2026, politpro.eu)
PolitPro Wahltrend KD: 6,7 % / 24 Sitze (Stand 28. August 2026, politpro.eu)
Riksdag-Wahl Schweden: 13. September 2026, linker Bloc führt laut Trend (SVT Nyheter / Valmyndigheten)

Verdict: Miss

Kristdemokraterna erhielt bei der Riksdag-Wahl am 13. September 2026 laut Valmyndigheten (Endergebnis nach Auszählung aller 6.626 Wahlbezirke, Stand 18. September 2026) ca. 6,2 % der Stimmen (395.880 Stimmen, 22 Sitze). Das SVT-Wahlaustrittsbefragung (Valu) zeigte 6,1 %. Die Schwelle von 7,0 % wurde damit klar verfehlt. Ursache: Der pessimistische Pol der Umfragebandbreite (PolitPro-Aggregat 6,7 %) erwies sich als näher an der Realität als der Demoskop-Ausreißer (8,5 %), und das endgültige Ergebnis lag sogar noch unterhalb des Aggregat-Trends. Quellen: SVT Valresultat 2026 (valresultat.svt.se/2026), Valmyndigheten (val.se/english/election-results/…/election-results-2026), Wikipedia Riksdagsvalet i Sverige 2026.

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