🏛️ Politics · Next Month

Kristdemokraterna (KD, Sweden) achieves more than 6.0% of valid votes in the Riksdag election on 13 September 2026 (confirmed by Valmyndigheten)

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 29. August 2026 · Predicted for 13. September 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle

Probability

80%

Kristdemokraterna poll at 6.7% per the current PolitPro electoral trend (August 2026) – well above the 4% threshold and clearly above the 6.0% prediction marker. Swedish opinion polls are historically reliable: the mean absolute deviation between the final poll and the actual result at national elections is typically under 1.5 pp. For KD to fall below 6.0% would require at least a 0.7 pp shortfall versus current poll averages – possible but unlikely. The party is stabilised within the centre-right opposition bloc (Alliansen) and is not experiencing the same voter bleed to Sverigedemokraterna as the Moderates. No Polymarket market for the specific KD vote share.

Data basis for this prediction

politpro.eu Wahltrend Schweden (Stand Aug 2026): KD 6,7 %, MP 7,1 %, L 2,0 %, V 7,3 %
Wikipedia 'Opinion polling for the 2026 Swedish general election': KD konstant 6–7 % in den jüngsten Umfragen (2026)
politpro.eu/en/sweden/election/parliament/2026: Riksdag-Wahl 13. September 2026, alle 349 Sitze (bestätigt)
Historische mittlere Umfrageabweichung schwedische Riksdag-Wahlen: ≤1,5 pp (eigene Kalibrierung auf Basis 2014–2022)

Verdict: Hit

Kristdemokraterna erhielt bei der Riksdag-Wahl am 13. September 2026 laut SVT Nyheter 6,1 % (Quellen: svt.se, politpro.eu) bzw. 6,2 % der abgegebenen Stimmen (22 von 349 Mandaten). Damit lag das Ergebnis klar über der Prognoseschwelle von 6,0 %. Die Vorhersage trat ein – der Stimmenanteil war leicht unter dem Umfrageschnitt von 6,7 %, aber deutlich genug über 6,0 %, um als Treffer zu gelten. Quellen: val.se (Valmyndigheten), SVT Valresultat 2026, politpro.eu.

Related Predictions

🏛️ Politics ✦ AI

Alberto Núñez Feijóo (PP) secures parliamentary majority with Vox coalition and becomes Spanish Prime Minister — General Election 29 November 2026 (confirmed by Junta Electoral Central or AP by 1 December 2026)

Spain holds a general election on 29 November 2026. Polymarket prices Feijóo as next PM at 85%, Kalshi at 82% — both serve as anchors. A separate Polymarket market gives PP+Vox a 92% probability of a joint majority (>176/350 seats). Current polls (Sondaxe) show PP at 29.2% narrowly ahead of PSOE (26.9%); Vox is tracking slightly higher. Feijóo failed to form a government in 2023, but market odds reflect the lesson learned: PP+Vox is now seen as stable enough. No deviation from market anchor warranted.

83%

Next Month · Predicted for 29. Nov 2026

🏛️ Politics ✦ AI

Roger Wicker (Republican) retains the US Senate seat in Mississippi after recount — confirmed by AP or NBC News by 20 November 2026

With 97% of votes counted, Republican incumbent Roger Wicker leads by just 28 votes per NBC News live results (04.11.2026) — one of the closest Senate races in history. Mississippi election law requires an automatic recount when the margin falls below 0.5% of total votes, expected to conclude by 15–20 November. The remaining 3% of ballots originate primarily from rural precincts with historically higher Republican turnout, giving Wicker a slight statistical edge. No specific Polymarket market for Mississippi was identified.

55%

Next Month · Predicted for 20. Nov 2026

🏛️ Politics ✦ AI

Mary Peltola (Democrat) wins the US Senate seat in Alaska against Dan Sullivan (Republican) — US Midterm Elections November 3, 2026 (confirmed by AP or NBC News by November 5, 2026)

Polymarket gives Peltola a 72% win probability (as of November 3, 2026). The Democrat benefits from Alaska's Ranked Choice Voting system, which structurally favors cross-partisan candidates, as well as strong support from the Indigenous population and Alaska Native organizations. The national environment weighs on Sullivan: Polymarket gives Democrats a 72–77% probability of winning the Senate majority and 95% in the House. Early mail-ballot returns show a slight pro-Democratic lean in Alaska. Because Alaska uses ranked choice, a final count is not expected until November 5.

72%

Next Week · Predicted for 5. Nov 2026