🏛️ Politics · Next Month

Kristdemokraterna (KD, Sweden) achieves more than 6.0% of valid votes in the Riksdag election on 13 September 2026 (confirmed by Valmyndigheten)

Pending ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 29. August 2026 · Predicted for 13. September 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle

Probability

80%

Kristdemokraterna poll at 6.7% per the current PolitPro electoral trend (August 2026) – well above the 4% threshold and clearly above the 6.0% prediction marker. Swedish opinion polls are historically reliable: the mean absolute deviation between the final poll and the actual result at national elections is typically under 1.5 pp. For KD to fall below 6.0% would require at least a 0.7 pp shortfall versus current poll averages – possible but unlikely. The party is stabilised within the centre-right opposition bloc (Alliansen) and is not experiencing the same voter bleed to Sverigedemokraterna as the Moderates. No Polymarket market for the specific KD vote share.

Data basis for this prediction

politpro.eu Wahltrend Schweden (Stand Aug 2026): KD 6,7 %, MP 7,1 %, L 2,0 %, V 7,3 %
Wikipedia 'Opinion polling for the 2026 Swedish general election': KD konstant 6–7 % in den jüngsten Umfragen (2026)
politpro.eu/en/sweden/election/parliament/2026: Riksdag-Wahl 13. September 2026, alle 349 Sitze (bestätigt)
Historische mittlere Umfrageabweichung schwedische Riksdag-Wahlen: ≤1,5 pp (eigene Kalibrierung auf Basis 2014–2022)

Verdict: Pending

This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.

Related Predictions

🏛️ Politics ✦ AI

Berlin state election (20 September 2026): SPD receives more than 18.0% of valid votes cast (confirmed by Berlin Returning Officer or tagesschau.de by 21 September 2026)

The SPD received exactly 18.4% in the 2023 Berlin state election and has since been in opposition. Current polls (August/September 2026) put the SPD at 19–22%, making a result above 18.0% likely. Headwinds: ongoing federal political controversy and competition from BSW (which, per existing prediction, is expected below 5%). The 18.0% threshold is just below the 2023 result and would only be missed in a dramatic collapse. No Polymarket market; Metaculus aggregate implies ~65% for SPD above 18%.

65%

Next Month · Predicted for 20. Sep 2026

🏛️ Politics ✦ AI

Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election (September 20, 2026): FDP falls below 5.0% of valid votes and fails to enter the Abgeordnetenhaus (confirmed by Berlin returning officer or tagesschau.de by September 21, 2026)

Both current Berlin polls place the FDP far below the 5% threshold: INSA (Sept 2–4, 2026): 3.0%; Infratest dimap (Aug 27–31, 2026): FDP below the statistical detectable threshold. The Berlin FDP has not reached the 5% mark in any poll since spring 2026. Clearing the hurdle would require a simultaneous systematic error of 2+ points from both institutes — historically near-unprecedented. This is the highest-confidence prediction of the entire Berlin election.

92%

Next Week · Predicted for 20. Sep 2026

🏛️ Politics ✦ AI

Swedish Riksdag election (September 13, 2026): Liberalerna (L) falls below 4.0% and fails to clear the parliamentary threshold (confirmed by Valmyndigheten by September 14, 2026)

Current polls show Liberalerna well below the 4% threshold: Indikator Opinion (fieldwork to September 4, 2026): 2.2%; PolitPro election trend (as of September 9, 2026): 2.7%. Neither institute identifies meaningful upward momentum. The party was part of the Tidö coalition but suffered from its image problems. Even with maximum systematic polling error of +1.5 points, Liberalerna would remain below 4.2%. Failing to enter the Riksdag would cost the governing coalition its parliamentary majority.

88%

Next Week · Predicted for 13. Sep 2026