🏛️ Politics · Next Year

No formal, comprehensive US-Iran nuclear deal signed by December 31, 2026

Pending ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 27. July 2026 · Predicted for 31. December 2026 · Based on: Ongoing Event

Probability

65%

Polymarket prices the chance of a US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027 at 35%, implying a 65% probability of no deal by year-end. Both sides are negotiating on core issues historically extremely complex: uranium enrichment limits (Iran demands the right to enrich), IAEA verification, disposal of existing HEU stockpiles, and comprehensive sanctions relief. US domestic political resistance (Senate requires 67 votes for ratification) and IRGC opposition to concessions make rapid agreement difficult. JCPOA negotiations lasted 2013–2015; a new deal by year-end 2026 appears unrealistic. Polymarket sees 35% for 'deal before 2027'.

Data basis for this prediction

Polymarket: 'US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027' = 35 % Ja (Stand Juli 2026)
Polymarket: 'US-Iran nuclear deal before September 2026' = 0 % (Stand Juli 2026)
Britannica: 'Iran nuclear deal negotiations 2025–26' – Überblick aktuelle Verhandlungsrunden (Juli 2026)
UK House of Commons Library: 'US-Iran ceasefire and nuclear talks in 2026' (Briefing Juli 2026)

Verdict: Pending

This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.

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