Keiko Fujimori is inaugurated as President of Peru on July 28, 2026 (Lima)
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 18. July 2026
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Predicted for 28. July 2026
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Based on: Ongoing Event
Keiko Fujimori won Peru's presidential runoff in June 2026 with 50.1% of valid votes. The inauguration is confirmed for Peruvian Independence Day (July 28). International heads of state — including Argentina's Milei, Chile's Kast, and Panama's Mulino — have confirmed attendance; security and protocol preparations are on track. Residual risks: legal challenges or security incidents could theoretically delay proceedings, but cancellation is considered extremely unlikely given the confirmed international presence. This is a prediction about the exercise of a public office.
Data basis for this prediction
- Rio Times Online: Fujimori-Amtseinführung 28. Juli 2026 bestätigt (Stand Juli 2026)
- Ground News: Milei bestätigt Teilnahme an Fujimoris Vereidigung in Lima (Stand Juli 2026)
- AP/Reuters: Fujimori gewinnt Stichwahl Juni 2026 mit 50,1 % der Stimmen
Verdict: Hit
Keiko Fujimori wurde am 28. Juli 2026 tatsächlich als peruanische Staatspräsidentin vereidigt. Sie gewann die Stichwahl im Juni 2026 knapp mit weniger als 50.000 Stimmen Vorsprung gegen den Linkskandidat Roberto Sanchez. Die Amtseinführung fand planmäßig in Lima statt; zu den Gästen zählte u.a. König Felipe VI. von Spanien. Quellen: Al Jazeera (https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/28/keiko-fujimori-sworn-in-as-peru-president-after-narrow-election-win), NPR (https://www.npr.org/2026/07/28/nx-s1-5910830/peru-president-keiko-fujimori-inaugurated), Washington Post (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2026/07/28/peru-keiko-fujimori-inauguration/f6627c8a-8aa9-11f1-8912-d71e69d679d7_story.html).
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Spain holds a general election on 29 November 2026. Polymarket prices Feijóo as next PM at 85%, Kalshi at 82% — both serve as anchors. A separate Polymarket market gives PP+Vox a 92% probability of a joint majority (>176/350 seats). Current polls (Sondaxe) show PP at 29.2% narrowly ahead of PSOE (26.9%); Vox is tracking slightly higher. Feijóo failed to form a government in 2023, but market odds reflect the lesson learned: PP+Vox is now seen as stable enough. No deviation from market anchor warranted.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
With 97% of votes counted, Republican incumbent Roger Wicker leads by just 28 votes per NBC News live results (04.11.2026) — one of the closest Senate races in history. Mississippi election law requires an automatic recount when the margin falls below 0.5% of total votes, expected to conclude by 15–20 November. The remaining 3% of ballots originate primarily from rural precincts with historically higher Republican turnout, giving Wicker a slight statistical edge. No specific Polymarket market for Mississippi was identified.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Polymarket gives Peltola a 72% win probability (as of November 3, 2026). The Democrat benefits from Alaska's Ranked Choice Voting system, which structurally favors cross-partisan candidates, as well as strong support from the Indigenous population and Alaska Native organizations. The national environment weighs on Sullivan: Polymarket gives Democrats a 72–77% probability of winning the Senate majority and 95% in the House. Early mail-ballot returns show a slight pro-Democratic lean in Alaska. Because Alaska uses ranked choice, a final count is not expected until November 5.