🏛️ Politics · Next Month

Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru announces his resignation as head of government by August 15, 2026 (confirmed by Japanese Cabinet or Imperial Household Agency)

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 20. July 2026 · Predicted for 15. August 2026 · Based on: Speculative

Probability

60%

The LDP and coalition partner Komeito lost their upper house majority in the July 20, 2026 Sangiin election (reportedly 122 seats, 125 needed). Ishiba stated he would initially stay in office but faces heavy intra-party pressure. Sanae Takaichi is named by CSIS and Nippon.com as the leading LDP succession candidate. Historical pattern after lost majorities: Abe 2007 (upper house defeat → resigned within 2 months), Kishida 2024 (lower house → resigned in 3 weeks). For a 4-week window to August 15, the base rate implies ~55–65% resignation probability. No direct prediction market found.

Data basis for this prediction

Japan Oberhauswahl 20.07.2026: LDP verliert Mehrheit (CSIS Analysis, 20.07.2026)
Ishiba vows to stay in office despite election defeat (Al Jazeera, 20.07.2026)
Takaichi als LDP-Nachfolgefavoritin (Nippon.com / CSIS, Juli 2026)
Historisches Muster: Abe 2007 Rücktritt nach Oberhauswahl-Niederlage; Kishida 2024 nach Unterhauswahl

Verdict: Hit

Ishiba Shigeru kündigte seinen Rücktritt am 7. September 2025 an – also vor dem Stichtag 15. August 2026. Der kausale Mechanismus der Vorhersage war korrekt: Die Oberhauswahl vom 20. Juli 2025 (LDP+Komeito: 122 Sitze, Mehrheit verfehlt) führte nach zunächst hartnäckigem Widerstand (Ablehnung der Rücktrittsrufe am 8. August 2025) zum Rücktritt. Allerdings enthält die Vorhersage einen Jahreszahlenfehler: Die Sangiin-Senkyo fand am 20. Juli 2025 statt, nicht 2026 – die Vorhersage beschreibt die 2025er Wahl, datiert sie aber auf 2026. Formal gilt das Ergebnis (Rücktritt vor dem 15. August 2026) als eingetreten; Ishiba war durch Sanae Takaichi, die seit Februar 2026 die 105. Premierministerin Japans ist, bereits seit ca. einem Jahr abgelöst. Quellen: CNN (2025-09-07), CNBC (2025-09-07), Japan Kantei (105th PM Feb 2026), Nippon.com.

Related Predictions

🏛️ Politics ✦ AI

Alberto Núñez Feijóo (PP) secures parliamentary majority with Vox coalition and becomes Spanish Prime Minister — General Election 29 November 2026 (confirmed by Junta Electoral Central or AP by 1 December 2026)

Spain holds a general election on 29 November 2026. Polymarket prices Feijóo as next PM at 85%, Kalshi at 82% — both serve as anchors. A separate Polymarket market gives PP+Vox a 92% probability of a joint majority (>176/350 seats). Current polls (Sondaxe) show PP at 29.2% narrowly ahead of PSOE (26.9%); Vox is tracking slightly higher. Feijóo failed to form a government in 2023, but market odds reflect the lesson learned: PP+Vox is now seen as stable enough. No deviation from market anchor warranted.

83%

Next Month · Predicted for 29. Nov 2026

🏛️ Politics ✦ AI

Roger Wicker (Republican) retains the US Senate seat in Mississippi after recount — confirmed by AP or NBC News by 20 November 2026

With 97% of votes counted, Republican incumbent Roger Wicker leads by just 28 votes per NBC News live results (04.11.2026) — one of the closest Senate races in history. Mississippi election law requires an automatic recount when the margin falls below 0.5% of total votes, expected to conclude by 15–20 November. The remaining 3% of ballots originate primarily from rural precincts with historically higher Republican turnout, giving Wicker a slight statistical edge. No specific Polymarket market for Mississippi was identified.

55%

Next Month · Predicted for 20. Nov 2026

🏛️ Politics ✦ AI

Mary Peltola (Democrat) wins the US Senate seat in Alaska against Dan Sullivan (Republican) — US Midterm Elections November 3, 2026 (confirmed by AP or NBC News by November 5, 2026)

Polymarket gives Peltola a 72% win probability (as of November 3, 2026). The Democrat benefits from Alaska's Ranked Choice Voting system, which structurally favors cross-partisan candidates, as well as strong support from the Indigenous population and Alaska Native organizations. The national environment weighs on Sullivan: Polymarket gives Democrats a 72–77% probability of winning the Senate majority and 95% in the House. Early mail-ballot returns show a slight pro-Democratic lean in Alaska. Because Alaska uses ranked choice, a final count is not expected until November 5.

72%

Next Week · Predicted for 5. Nov 2026