Japan House of Councillors election (July 20, 2026): Reiwa Shinsengumi wins at least 4 of 125 contested seats
Miss
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 19. July 2026
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Predicted for 20. July 2026
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Based on: Statistical Pattern
Left-alternative Reiwa Shinsengumi (Tarō Yamamoto) is benefiting from the LDP's historic collapse in trust. In the 2025 Sangiin vote the party won 3 seats; in the February 2026 lower-house election it drew ~2.92% of the PR vote. With further strengthened anti-establishment sentiment and targeted social-policy demands (minimum wage, debt relief), 4–6 seats is plausible. No Polymarket odds available; NHK seat models project a 4–6 seat range.
Data basis for this prediction
- Reiwa Shinsengumi: Sangiin-Wahl 2025, 3 Mandate (Wikipedia, Stand 19.07.2026)
- Reiwa PR-Stimmen Shūgiin Feb 2026: ca. 2,92 % (Wikipedia)
- NHK-Sitzprognose Sangiin 2026: Reiwa 4–6 Mandate (NHK, Stand 19.07.2026)
- Offene Vorhersagen: LDP-Komeito verliert Oberhaus-Mehrheit (Cassandra.news)
Verdict: Miss
[Vorzeitig entschieden] Reiwa Shinsengumi gewann nur 3 der 125 Mandate (Sangiin-Wahl 20. Juli 2025, Ergebnisse seit Wahlnacht bekannt). Bedingung ≥4 nicht erfüllt. Quelle: Wikipedia – 2025 Japanese House of Councillors election; Soumu.go.jp
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
The SPD received exactly 18.4% in the 2023 Berlin state election and has since been in opposition. Current polls (August/September 2026) put the SPD at 19–22%, making a result above 18.0% likely. Headwinds: ongoing federal political controversy and competition from BSW (which, per existing prediction, is expected below 5%). The 18.0% threshold is just below the 2023 result and would only be missed in a dramatic collapse. No Polymarket market; Metaculus aggregate implies ~65% for SPD above 18%.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Both current Berlin polls place the FDP far below the 5% threshold: INSA (Sept 2–4, 2026): 3.0%; Infratest dimap (Aug 27–31, 2026): FDP below the statistical detectable threshold. The Berlin FDP has not reached the 5% mark in any poll since spring 2026. Clearing the hurdle would require a simultaneous systematic error of 2+ points from both institutes — historically near-unprecedented. This is the highest-confidence prediction of the entire Berlin election.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Current polls show Liberalerna well below the 4% threshold: Indikator Opinion (fieldwork to September 4, 2026): 2.2%; PolitPro election trend (as of September 9, 2026): 2.7%. Neither institute identifies meaningful upward momentum. The party was part of the Tidö coalition but suffered from its image problems. Even with maximum systematic polling error of +1.5 points, Liberalerna would remain below 4.2%. Failing to enter the Riksdag would cost the governing coalition its parliamentary majority.