🏛️ Politics · Next Month

Israeli Knesset Election (October 27, 2026): Yesh Atid (Yair Lapid's party) achieves more than 13.0% of votes cast (confirmed by Central Elections Committee of Israel or Reuters by October 28, 2026)

Miss ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 14. September 2026 · Predicted for 27. October 2026 · Based on: Speculative

Probability

54%

Yesh Atid won approximately 14.1% of votes (24 of 120 seats) in the November 2022 Knesset election. As the centrist-liberal opposition party, Yesh Atid under Lapid remains the strongest counterpart to the Netanyahu coalition. The open Cassandra forecast implies Netanyahu's right-wing bloc falls below 61 seats — requiring a strengthened, unified opposition from which Yesh Atid disproportionately benefits. No direct Polymarket/Kalshi market for Yesh Atid vote share. Estimate based on the 2022 comparison result and structural opposition dynamics.

Data basis for this prediction

Zentrales Wahlkomitee Israel: Knesset-Wahl November 2022 – Yesh Atid 24 Sitze, ca. 14,1 % der abgegebenen Stimmen
Offene Cassandra-Vorhersage: Netanyahu-Rechtsblock (Likud, Shas, UTJ, nationalreligiöse Parteien) erzielt weniger als 61 von 120 Knesset-Sitzen (27. Oktober 2026)
Reuters / Haaretz: Israelische Knesset-Neuwahl festgelegt für 27. Oktober 2026

Verdict: Miss

Yesh Atid trat bei der Knesset-Wahl vom 27. Oktober 2026 nicht eigenständig an: Die Partei fusionierte im April 2026 mit Bennett 2026 zum gemeinsamen Bündnis 'Together' (hebr. יחד), geführt von Naftali Bennett – nicht mehr von Lapid allein. Das Bündnis erzielte laut Auszählung nur 9,02 % der gültigen Stimmen (ca. 460.478 Stimmen, 12 Sitze), deutlich unter der Schwelle von 13,0 %. Der separat messbare Yesh-Atid-Stimmenanteil existiert nicht, da es keine eigenständige Kandidatur gab. Quellen: thestateofisrael.com/election-2026/results; poliwave.com/il/live/knesset-2026; en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Together_(Israel)

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