Israeli Knesset Election (October 27, 2026): Yesh Atid (Yair Lapid's party) achieves more than 13.0% of votes cast (confirmed by Central Elections Committee of Israel or Reuters by October 28, 2026)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 14. September 2026
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Predicted for 27. October 2026
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Based on: Speculative
Yesh Atid won approximately 14.1% of votes (24 of 120 seats) in the November 2022 Knesset election. As the centrist-liberal opposition party, Yesh Atid under Lapid remains the strongest counterpart to the Netanyahu coalition. The open Cassandra forecast implies Netanyahu's right-wing bloc falls below 61 seats — requiring a strengthened, unified opposition from which Yesh Atid disproportionately benefits. No direct Polymarket/Kalshi market for Yesh Atid vote share. Estimate based on the 2022 comparison result and structural opposition dynamics.
Data basis for this prediction
- Zentrales Wahlkomitee Israel: Knesset-Wahl November 2022 – Yesh Atid 24 Sitze, ca. 14,1 % der abgegebenen Stimmen
- Offene Cassandra-Vorhersage: Netanyahu-Rechtsblock (Likud, Shas, UTJ, nationalreligiöse Parteien) erzielt weniger als 61 von 120 Knesset-Sitzen (27. Oktober 2026)
- Reuters / Haaretz: Israelische Knesset-Neuwahl festgelegt für 27. Oktober 2026
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Election night projections showed Tidö parties (M, SD, KD, L) at 46.8–47.0% combined. Subtracting estimated shares for Moderaterna (~18%), KD (~5%), Liberalerna (~4–5%) implies an SD total of approximately 19–21%. SD won 20.5% in 2022; 2026 polls consistently placed SD at 18–22%. No direct Polymarket market for SD vote share. Existing open forecasts cover M, V, L, and MP — SD is the only Tidö party without a Cassandra prediction.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Reference data: CDU MV 2021 = 13.3%; CDU Brandenburg 2024 = 12.1% — benchmarks for comparable eastern German states. Countervailing forces: AfD gains (open platform prediction AfD MV > 34%) compress CDU voter reservoir; conversely, the CDU federal government (Merz) supports the party brand. BSW and Greens are predicted to fail the 5% threshold, potentially redirecting centrist votes toward the CDU. A range of 11–16% appears realistic; the 12.0% threshold is estimated to be crossed with ~62% probability based on eastern benchmarks. No CDU threshold for MV exists in the open prediction list — no duplicate.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Jair Bolsonaro is ineligible to run due to an 8-year electoral ban imposed by Brazil's Supreme Electoral Court (TSE ruling 2023). The most likely opponent for incumbent Lula (PT) is Tarcísio de Freitas (PL), Governor of São Paulo and representative of the Bolsonaro wing – a strong challenger with high approval ratings in São Paulo but limited reach in the structurally PT-friendly northeast. Lula won the 2022 runoff against Bolsonaro with 50.9%. As incumbent, he benefits from structural advantages: state apparatus, organised PT network, social transfer programmes (Bolsa Família). Headwinds come from mixed economic data and fiscal debates. A separate open Cassandra prediction already forecasts a runoff requirement (October 4, 2026). Polymarket has no specific Brazil election market; own estimate based on incumbency advantage and historical pattern: 52%.