Israeli Knesset election (October 27, 2026): voter turnout exceeds 68.0 percent (confirmed by Israel Central Elections Committee or Reuters by October 28, 2026)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 22. September 2026
·
Predicted for 27. October 2026
·
Based on: Historical Cycle
The four Knesset elections since 2019 all saw turnout between 67.4% (2021, historic low due to Arab voter fatigue) and 70.6% (2022). The current wartime context (Iran conflict, ongoing security threats) historically mobilises broader population segments; the 2022 election with 70.6% also took place under elevated security conditions. A figure above 68% was achieved in 3 of the last 4 elections. Downside risk: persistent Arab community mobilisation challenges or security concerns in border areas could dampen participation. No direct prediction market available.
Data basis for this prediction
- Israelische Knesset-Wahl 2022 (25. Knesset): Wahlbeteiligung 70,63 % (Israel Central Elections Committee, 01.11.2022)
- Israelische Knesset-Wahl 2021 (24. Knesset): Wahlbeteiligung 67,44 % (Statista / Wikipedia, 23.03.2021)
- Israelische Knesset-Wahlen 2019: 68,46 % (April) und 69,83 % (September) (Israel CEC)
- Offene Plattform-Vorhersage: Netanyahu bildet bis 30.11.2026 keine Mehrheitskoalition – bestätigt Knesset-Wahl am 27.10.2026 (Cassandra.news)
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
In US midterm elections, the incumbent president's party historically loses seats in the House in ~95% of cases (avg. –28 seats since 1946). Trump's approval ratings recently stood below 45%, historically correlating with above-average losses. Democrats need a net gain of approximately 7–8 seats against the current Republican majority. Polymarket assigns 65% to a Democratic Senate majority (as of Sept 22, 2026, Vol. USD 2.96M) — no direct House quote was available. Structural factors are comparably strong; own calibration: 54%. This prediction is independent of the open Senate prediction.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Aggregated prediction markets (Polymarket/Edgex aggregate, as of September 2026) price Bolsonaro Jr. at 41% and Lula at 36% for overall election victory. Since the platform's open prediction forecasts Lula's first-round share at >42% (but <50%), a runoff on October 25 is near-certain. Normalized for the head-to-head: Bolsonaro Jr. ~53% vs. Lula ~47%. Quaest runoff polling (August 2026): Lula 43% vs. Bolsonaro Jr. 40% — within margin of error. Factors for Bolsonaro Jr.: right-wing runoff consolidation (2022 pattern), Lula approval below 40%, age factor (Lula, 80). Polymarket prices Bolsonaro Jr. at 41%.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Datafolha (September 15–17, 2026) shows Flávio Bolsonaro at 36% in round one — one point above the threshold. AtlasIntel (Sept. 2026) shows him significantly higher at 41.7%. Most aggregates fall between 36% and 42%. Historically, the Bolsonaro bloc displayed a 'shy voter' effect: Jair Bolsonaro outperformed his polls by ~2pp in 2022. AtlasIntel has Flávio actually leading the runoff 47.2% vs. Lula's 46.8%. Falling below 35% would represent a substantial polling miss. No direct Polymarket market found for Bolsonaro's exact vote share; own estimate 63%.