🏛️ Politics · Next Month

Israeli Knesset election (October 27, 2026): voter turnout exceeds 68.0 percent (confirmed by Israel Central Elections Committee or Reuters by October 28, 2026)

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 22. September 2026 · Predicted for 27. October 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle

Probability

63%

The four Knesset elections since 2019 all saw turnout between 67.4% (2021, historic low due to Arab voter fatigue) and 70.6% (2022). The current wartime context (Iran conflict, ongoing security threats) historically mobilises broader population segments; the 2022 election with 70.6% also took place under elevated security conditions. A figure above 68% was achieved in 3 of the last 4 elections. Downside risk: persistent Arab community mobilisation challenges or security concerns in border areas could dampen participation. No direct prediction market available.

Data basis for this prediction

Israelische Knesset-Wahl 2022 (25. Knesset): Wahlbeteiligung 70,63 % (Israel Central Elections Committee, 01.11.2022)
Israelische Knesset-Wahl 2021 (24. Knesset): Wahlbeteiligung 67,44 % (Statista / Wikipedia, 23.03.2021)
Israelische Knesset-Wahlen 2019: 68,46 % (April) und 69,83 % (September) (Israel CEC)
Offene Plattform-Vorhersage: Netanyahu bildet bis 30.11.2026 keine Mehrheitskoalition – bestätigt Knesset-Wahl am 27.10.2026 (Cassandra.news)

Verdict: Hit

Die Wahlbeteiligung bei der Knesset-Wahl am 27. Oktober 2026 betrug laut Zentralem Wahlausschuss Israels 77,7 % – deutlich über dem Schwellenwert von 68,0 %. Es war die höchste Beteiligung seit 1999 (damals 78,7 %). Treiber waren eine außergewöhnlich hohe arabische Wahlbeteiligung (~80 %), Soldaten-Mobilisierung und die sicherheitspolitische Gesamtlage. Quellen: Al Jazeera (https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/10/27/israel-election-turnout-highest-in-50-years-as-voting-continues), Haaretz (https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/elections/2026-10-27/), Jerusalem Post (https://www.jpost.com/israel-election-2026/2026-10-28/live-updates-913081).

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