Israeli Knesset election (October 27, 2026): Likud (Netanyahu's party) wins fewer than 25 Knesset seats (out of 120, confirmed by the Central Elections Committee of Israel or Reuters by October 28, 2026)
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 18. September 2026
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Predicted for 27. October 2026
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Based on: Statistical Pattern
Polymarket market 'Israel Election – Likud seats' (as of September 18, 2026): P(20–24 seats) = 40%, P(<20 seats) = 22.6%, P(25–29 seats) = 27%, P(30–34 seats) = 11%. This yields P(<25 seats) = P(<20) + P(20–24) = 22.6% + 40% = 62.6% ≈ 63%. Political context: current Channel 13 polls (September 2026) show the full Netanyahu bloc at 54 seats vs. Eisenkot bloc at 52 — historically tight. Likud has lost substantial ground since 2022/23 to smaller religious-national parties (Otzma Yehudit, Religious Zionism). Simultaneously, Eisenkot's Yashar party is projected to gain ≥22 seats, structurally weakening traditional large parties like Likud. Polymarket gives Netanyahu only a 31% chance of becoming next PM (Eisenkot: 50%). This prediction complements — and does not contradict — the existing forecast 'Yashar ≥22 seats'.
Data basis for this prediction
- Polymarket 'Israel Election – Likud seats': P(20–24)=40%, P(<20)=22,6%, P(25–29)=27% (polymarket.com, 18.9.2026)
- Polymarket 'Next PM of Israel': Netanyahu 31%, Eisenkot 50% (polymarket.com, 18.9.2026)
- Jerusalem Post Israelische Wahlen-Umfrage Sept 2026: Netanyahu-Block 54 Sitze, Eisenkot-Block 52 Sitze (jpost.com, 18.9.2026)
- Haaretz Poll Tracker 2026: Likud-Einzelpartei-Prognose 18–27 Sitze, Mittelwert ~22–24 (haaretz.com, Stand Sept 2026)
Verdict: Hit
[Vorzeitig entschieden] Exit-Polls aller drei großen israelischen Sender (Kan, Channel 12, Channel 13) sowie Yahoo News bestätigen Likud bei nur 19–21 Sitzen, also klar unter 25. Quelle: Exit Polls Kan/Channel 12/13, Yahoo News.
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