🏛️ Politics · Next Month

Israeli Knesset election (October 27, 2026): Likud (Benjamin Netanyahu) receives more than 20.0% of votes cast (confirmed by Central Elections Committee of Israel or Reuters by October 28, 2026)

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 16. September 2026 · Predicted for 27. October 2026 · Based on: Speculative

Probability

66%

The Knesset election on October 27, 2026 is seen as a referendum on Netanyahu's conduct since October 7, 2023. Current September 2026 polls (Jerusalem Post, i24NEWS) place Likud at ~27 seats (~22.5% of 120 seats) in one poll; the overall picture shows a near-tie between the Netanyahu bloc (~53 seats) and the opposition bloc (~53 seats). The 20.0% threshold corresponds to ~24 seats – below the current polling average, providing tolerance for moderate campaign-period decline.

Data basis for this prediction

Jerusalem Post: Latest Israeli election polls Sep 2026 – Likud ~27 seats in i24NEWS poll, bloc tie ~53/53
Britannica: 2026 Israeli Elections – Netanyahu bloc vs. Zionist opposition bloc each ~53 seats (Stand: Sep 2026)
Wikipedia: Opinion polling for 2026 Israeli legislative election (Stand: Sep 2026)

Verdict: Hit

Laut Live-Auszählung (Stand 29. Oktober 2026, ~98,6 % der Wahllokale ausgezählt) erzielte Likud ca. 20,69–20,7 % der gültigen Stimmen und gewann 26 Sitze (Quelle: poliwave.com/il/live/knesset-2026, thestateofisrael.com/election-2026/results, israelielection.org/results). Die Vorhersageschwelle von >20,0 % wurde damit klar übertroffen. Reuters und Haaretz berichteten zeitnah über die Ergebnisse (haaretz.com, 28. Oktober 2026). Offizielle Endresultate des Zentralen Wahlkomitees werden bis 4. November 2026 erwartet, sind aber angesichts des Auszählungsstands nicht mehr entscheidungsrelevant. Bemerkenswert: Der Oppositionsblock erreichte überraschend ~67 Sitze gegenüber Netanyahus Bloc mit ~53 Sitzen – ein deutlicher Verlust gegenüber Umfragen, jedoch berührt das nicht die spezifische Stimmenprozent-Schwelle für Likud.

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