🏛️ Politics · Next Month

Iran: Assembly of Experts (Majles-e Khobregan) officially designates a new Supreme Leader by 15 August 2026 (confirmed by IRNA or official Iranian state announcement)

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 21. July 2026 · Predicted for 15. August 2026 · Based on: Speculative

Probability

50%

Ali Khamenei was killed on 28 February 2026 in a joint US-Israeli airstrike (confirmed by Al Jazeera, NPR, Iran International). His state funeral took place on 3 July 2026 after delays caused by ongoing hostilities. This means the supreme leadership post has formally been vacant for over 4.5 months. The Iran-US MoU of June 14, 2026 demonstrates that a provisional decision-making structure exists; formal legitimization by the Assembly of Experts remains pending. Historically, Khomeini's successor was named within a day in 1989. Leading candidates: Mojtaba Khamenei, Sadegh Larijani, Ahmad Jannati. Geopolitical pressure (Iran-US talks, revolutionary legitimacy) raises institutional urgency for formalization.

Data basis for this prediction

Al Jazeera 28. Februar 2026: Khamenei bei US-israelischem Luftangriff getötet
NPR / Iran International März 2026: Irans Staatsbeerdigung verzögert bis 3. Juli 2026
Al Jazeera 10. Juli 2026: Iran-USA-Gespräche stocken nach Khamenei-Staatsbeerdigung

Verdict: Hit

Der Expertenrat (Majles-e Khobregan) hat Mojtaba Khamenei am 8./9. März 2026 offiziell zum neuen Obersten Führer ernannt – weit vor der Frist 15. August 2026. Die Ernennung erfolgte damit nicht nach monatelangem Vakuum (wie in der Vorhersage-Begründung angenommen), sondern bereits ca. 8–9 Tage nach dem Tod Ali Khameneis. Die Vorhersage trifft inhaltlich zu (Mojtaba Khamenei war korrekt als Hauptkandidat benannt, die formelle Bestätigung durch den Expertenrat fand statt und wurde u.a. von IRNA, Al Jazeera, NPR und Iran International gemeldet), jedoch war die Begründung über ein 'Vakuum von über 4,5 Monaten' sachlich falsch. Quellen: [Iran International](https://www.iranintl.com/en/202603030390), [Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/8/iran-names-khameneis-son-as-new-supreme-leader-after-fathers-killing-2), [NPR](https://www.npr.org/2026/03/08/nx-s1-5741654/israel-iran-oil-ayatollah-successor), [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Iranian_supreme_leader_election).

Related Predictions

🏛️ Politics ✦ AI

Alberto Núñez Feijóo (PP) secures parliamentary majority with Vox coalition and becomes Spanish Prime Minister — General Election 29 November 2026 (confirmed by Junta Electoral Central or AP by 1 December 2026)

Spain holds a general election on 29 November 2026. Polymarket prices Feijóo as next PM at 85%, Kalshi at 82% — both serve as anchors. A separate Polymarket market gives PP+Vox a 92% probability of a joint majority (>176/350 seats). Current polls (Sondaxe) show PP at 29.2% narrowly ahead of PSOE (26.9%); Vox is tracking slightly higher. Feijóo failed to form a government in 2023, but market odds reflect the lesson learned: PP+Vox is now seen as stable enough. No deviation from market anchor warranted.

83%

Next Month · Predicted for 29. Nov 2026

🏛️ Politics ✦ AI

Roger Wicker (Republican) retains the US Senate seat in Mississippi after recount — confirmed by AP or NBC News by 20 November 2026

With 97% of votes counted, Republican incumbent Roger Wicker leads by just 28 votes per NBC News live results (04.11.2026) — one of the closest Senate races in history. Mississippi election law requires an automatic recount when the margin falls below 0.5% of total votes, expected to conclude by 15–20 November. The remaining 3% of ballots originate primarily from rural precincts with historically higher Republican turnout, giving Wicker a slight statistical edge. No specific Polymarket market for Mississippi was identified.

55%

Next Month · Predicted for 20. Nov 2026

🏛️ Politics ✦ AI

Mary Peltola (Democrat) wins the US Senate seat in Alaska against Dan Sullivan (Republican) — US Midterm Elections November 3, 2026 (confirmed by AP or NBC News by November 5, 2026)

Polymarket gives Peltola a 72% win probability (as of November 3, 2026). The Democrat benefits from Alaska's Ranked Choice Voting system, which structurally favors cross-partisan candidates, as well as strong support from the Indigenous population and Alaska Native organizations. The national environment weighs on Sullivan: Polymarket gives Democrats a 72–77% probability of winning the Senate majority and 95% in the House. Early mail-ballot returns show a slight pro-Democratic lean in Alaska. Because Alaska uses ranked choice, a final count is not expected until November 5.

72%

Next Week · Predicted for 5. Nov 2026