🏛️ Politics · Tomorrow

Georgia US House District 13 (CD-13): Democratic candidate wins special election on July 28, 2026 (confirmed by Georgia Secretary of State or AP)

Partial Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 27. July 2026 · Predicted for 28. July 2026 · Based on: Ongoing Event

Probability

92%

Georgia CD-13 is one of the most Democratic congressional districts in the US (Cook PVI D+38; Fulton, Douglas and DeKalb Counties; Biden +65% in 2020). David Scott (D) held the seat since 2003. The special election fills the remainder of his term. In a district with such an extreme partisan lean, the Democratic candidate is essentially unbeatable. No specific Polymarket market; own estimate 92% based on historical election results.

Data basis for this prediction

Bolts Mag: Georgia CD-13 Nachwahl 28. Juli 2026 bestätigt (boltsmag.org, 27.07.2026)
Cook Political Report: Georgia CD-13 PVI D+38 (Referenzwert)
Biden 2020-Ergebnis CD-13: +65 % (FEC-Daten)

Verdict: Partial Hit

Am 28. Juli 2026 fand die Nachwahl statt, aber kein Kandidat erreichte die in Georgia erforderliche absolute Mehrheit (50 %+1). Laut AP und CBS Atlanta/NBC News zogen zwei Demokraten ins Stichwahl-Duell ein: Marcye Scott (ca. 47 %) und Everton Blair (ca. 37 %). Die Stichwahl ist für den 25. August 2026 angesetzt – das Ergebnis steht noch aus (Stand: 21. August 2026). Die Vorhersage, dass ein Demokrat am 28. Juli 2026 gewinnt, ist insofern nicht eingetreten, da kein Sieger an diesem Datum feststand. Da jedoch beide Finalisten Demokraten sind, wird der Sitz mit Sicherheit an einen Demokraten gehen – der Geist der Vorhersage (demokratische Hochburg bleibt demokratisch) wird erfüllt werden, aber das spezifische Datum und die direkte Entscheidung am 28. Juli waren falsch. Quellen: AP via CBS Atlanta (cbsnews.com/atlanta), NBC News (rcna588928), Georgia Secretary of State (sos.ga.gov).

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