Georgia US House District 13 (CD-13): Democratic candidate wins special election on July 28, 2026 (confirmed by Georgia Secretary of State or AP)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 27. July 2026
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Predicted for 28. July 2026
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Based on: Ongoing Event
Georgia CD-13 is one of the most Democratic congressional districts in the US (Cook PVI D+38; Fulton, Douglas and DeKalb Counties; Biden +65% in 2020). David Scott (D) held the seat since 2003. The special election fills the remainder of his term. In a district with such an extreme partisan lean, the Democratic candidate is essentially unbeatable. No specific Polymarket market; own estimate 92% based on historical election results.
Data basis for this prediction
- Bolts Mag: Georgia CD-13 Nachwahl 28. Juli 2026 bestätigt (boltsmag.org, 27.07.2026)
- Cook Political Report: Georgia CD-13 PVI D+38 (Referenzwert)
- Biden 2020-Ergebnis CD-13: +65 % (FEC-Daten)
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
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Polymarket rates: AfD wins most seats at 98% — but AfD absolute majority at only 40%. In ~60% of scenarios AfD has no absolute majority and needs coalition partners, all of whom rule out cooperation nationwide. P(non-AfD coalition) = 0.60 × 0.90 + 0.40 × 0.05 ≈ 0.56. The existing open prediction covers only AfD vote share >38%; government formation is an independent question. Adjusted for negotiation delays and political edge cases: 55%.
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