🏛️ Politics · Next Year

Gadi Eizenkot (HaMahane HaMamlakhti, ISR) is sworn in as Israel's new Prime Minister by December 31, 2026 (confirmed by Knesset or Israeli Ministry of Foreign Affairs)

Pending ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 27. July 2026 · Predicted for 31. December 2026 · Based on: Speculative

Probability

50%

Polymarket shows Gadi Eizenkot (National Unity) as the favourite to become Israel's next Prime Minister at 53% probability (as of July 27, 2026; $30M trading volume), with Benjamin Netanyahu at 34%. Eizenkot, former IDF Chief of Staff and war cabinet member, is seen as a credible security expert with broader coalition viability. Sustained public dissatisfaction with Netanyahu's management of the Gaza war and the escalated Iran conflict (US air strikes since Q2 2026) weigh heavily on the current government. Most observers expect Israeli snap elections still in 2026. Own probability anchored to Polymarket at 50% (slight discount for timing uncertainty).

Data basis for this prediction

Polymarket: Gadi Eizenkot 53 %, Netanyahu 34 % (polymarket.com, 27.07.2026; Handelsvolumen 30 Mio. USD)
CFR Global Conflict Tracker: Israel-Gaza Phase 2 stockt (cfr.org, 27.07.2026)
Politischer Kontext Iran-Krieg 2026: anhaltende Regierungskrise Israel (Reuters/AFP Referenz)

Verdict: Pending

This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.

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