French Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu survives all no-confidence votes in the Assemblée nationale through August 31, 2026, and remains in office (confirmed by Assemblée nationale or Élysée)
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 23. July 2026
·
Predicted for 31. August 2026
·
Based on: Speculative
After François Bayrou lost a no-confidence vote in September 2025 over his €51bn austerity budget, Macron appointed Sébastien Lecornu as Prime Minister. Lecornu has been in office approximately 10 months (as of July 2026) and has survived prior challenges. Parliamentary summer recess runs through August; RN and the left bloc lack a coordinated majority for a successful no-confidence motion. Macron has a vital interest in stability ahead of the April 2027 presidential election. No prediction market; independent assessment: 75%.
Data basis for this prediction
- Al Jazeera: Bayrou in Misstrauensvotum gestürzt – Austeritätsbudget (September 2025)
- Al Jazeera: Macron ernennt Lecornu zum Premierminister (September 2025)
- Assemblée nationale: Sitzungskalender – Sommerpause Juli–Oktober 2026
- Élysée: Regierungsprogramm Lecornu bis Präsidentschaftswahl April 2027
Verdict: Hit
[Vorzeitig entschieden] Premierminister Sébastien Lecornu blieb bis 31. August 2026 im Amt. Bloomberg-Artikel vom 29. August 2026 zeigt ihn aktiv in Haushaltsverhandlungen. Kein erfolgreicher Misstrauensantrag bestätigt.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Spain holds a general election on 29 November 2026. Polymarket prices Feijóo as next PM at 85%, Kalshi at 82% — both serve as anchors. A separate Polymarket market gives PP+Vox a 92% probability of a joint majority (>176/350 seats). Current polls (Sondaxe) show PP at 29.2% narrowly ahead of PSOE (26.9%); Vox is tracking slightly higher. Feijóo failed to form a government in 2023, but market odds reflect the lesson learned: PP+Vox is now seen as stable enough. No deviation from market anchor warranted.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
With 97% of votes counted, Republican incumbent Roger Wicker leads by just 28 votes per NBC News live results (04.11.2026) — one of the closest Senate races in history. Mississippi election law requires an automatic recount when the margin falls below 0.5% of total votes, expected to conclude by 15–20 November. The remaining 3% of ballots originate primarily from rural precincts with historically higher Republican turnout, giving Wicker a slight statistical edge. No specific Polymarket market for Mississippi was identified.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Polymarket gives Peltola a 72% win probability (as of November 3, 2026). The Democrat benefits from Alaska's Ranked Choice Voting system, which structurally favors cross-partisan candidates, as well as strong support from the Indigenous population and Alaska Native organizations. The national environment weighs on Sullivan: Polymarket gives Democrats a 72–77% probability of winning the Senate majority and 95% in the House. Early mail-ballot returns show a slight pro-Democratic lean in Alaska. Because Alaska uses ranked choice, a final count is not expected until November 5.