🏛️ Politics · Next Month

French parliamentary election (first round, 13 September 2026): Rassemblement National (RN) wins more than 33.0% of votes cast (confirmed by French Interior Ministry or AFP)

Miss ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 22. August 2026 · Predicted for 13. September 2026 · Based on: Speculative

Probability

52%

In the snap parliamentary election of July 2024, the RN achieved ~33.2% in the first round — a historic high. Since then, immigration and purchasing power have consolidated as dominant issues; current polls show RN consistently at 32–36% voting intentions. The existing open prediction (Bardella will not become PM by October 2026) implies RN remains the largest force without forming a government — consistent with a first-round result >33% without an absolute majority. No Polymarket/Metaculus price found; estimate based on 2024 precedent and August 2026 poll consensus.

Data basis for this prediction

Frankreich Parlamentswahl Juli 2024: RN Erststimmen ~33,2 % (Ministère de l'Intérieur, Jul 2024)
Umfragen-Aggregator Frankreich Aug 2026: RN Wahlabsichten 33–35 % (IFOP/Politico Poll of Polls)
Open Prediction: Bardella (RN) wird nicht PM bis 31. Okt 2026 (Cassandra) — kein Widerspruch
Le Monde Wahlumfragen-Übersicht: RN stärkste Einzelpartei (Aug 2026)

Verdict: Miss

Die vorhergesagte Parlamentswahl (Legislatives) am 13. September 2026 hat nicht stattgefunden. Frankreichs letzte Nationalversammlungswahl war im Juni/Juli 2024 (Neuwahl nach Macrons Auflösung). Die nächsten regulären Législatives sind erst für 2029 geplant. Eine erneute Auflösung wäre zwar ab Juli 2025 verfassungsrechtlich möglich gewesen, ist aber nach aktuellem Recherche-Stand nicht erfolgt. Im September 2026 fanden lediglich die Senatswahlen (27. September 2026) statt, keine Parlamentswahlen. Da das vorhergesagte Ereignis schlicht nicht eingetreten ist, entfällt jede Bewertung des RN-Stimmenanteils. Quellen: Wikipedia 'Prochaines élections législatives françaises', PublicSénat zur Verfassungslage, elections.interieur.gouv.fr.

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