French Parliamentary Elections Round 1 (Sep. 13, 2026): Nouveau Front Populaire receives at least 20.0% of votes cast (confirmed by French Interior Ministry or AFP)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 23. August 2026
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Predicted for 13. September 2026
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Based on: Statistical Pattern
In the first round of snap French parliamentary elections (September 13, 2026), the Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP: LFI, PS, Greens, PCF) runs as a unified alliance. Current polls (August 22, 2026) show NFP at ~24% — well above the 20.0% threshold. RN leads at ~33–35% (consistent with existing Cassandra prediction: RN >33%). A NFP result of ≥20% is expected with ~74% probability. Main risks: tactical vote-splitting in round one, youth mobilization shortfalls. Reference: NFP achieved 28.1% in round one of the 2024 elections.
Data basis for this prediction
- Umfragen Frankreich Parlamentswahl 22.08.2026: RN 34%, NFP 24%, Ensemble 14%, LR 12% (aggregiert)
- Bestehende Cassandra-Vorhersage: RN >33% im 1. Wahlgang (13.09.2026) — kein Widerspruch
- Vergleich: NFP 1. Wahlgang 2024 = 28,1% (Innenministerium Frankreich, Juli 2024)
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
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✦ AI
The SPD received exactly 18.4% in the 2023 Berlin state election and has since been in opposition. Current polls (August/September 2026) put the SPD at 19–22%, making a result above 18.0% likely. Headwinds: ongoing federal political controversy and competition from BSW (which, per existing prediction, is expected below 5%). The 18.0% threshold is just below the 2023 result and would only be missed in a dramatic collapse. No Polymarket market; Metaculus aggregate implies ~65% for SPD above 18%.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Both current Berlin polls place the FDP far below the 5% threshold: INSA (Sept 2–4, 2026): 3.0%; Infratest dimap (Aug 27–31, 2026): FDP below the statistical detectable threshold. The Berlin FDP has not reached the 5% mark in any poll since spring 2026. Clearing the hurdle would require a simultaneous systematic error of 2+ points from both institutes — historically near-unprecedented. This is the highest-confidence prediction of the entire Berlin election.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Current polls show Liberalerna well below the 4% threshold: Indikator Opinion (fieldwork to September 4, 2026): 2.2%; PolitPro election trend (as of September 9, 2026): 2.7%. Neither institute identifies meaningful upward momentum. The party was part of the Tidö coalition but suffered from its image problems. Even with maximum systematic polling error of +1.5 points, Liberalerna would remain below 4.2%. Failing to enter the Riksdag would cost the governing coalition its parliamentary majority.