🏛️ Politics · Next Month

Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) wins the Brazilian presidential runoff on October 25, 2026

Miss ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 22. September 2026 · Predicted for 25. October 2026 · Based on: Speculative

Probability

52%

Aggregated prediction markets (Polymarket/Edgex aggregate, as of September 2026) price Bolsonaro Jr. at 41% and Lula at 36% for overall election victory. Since the platform's open prediction forecasts Lula's first-round share at >42% (but <50%), a runoff on October 25 is near-certain. Normalized for the head-to-head: Bolsonaro Jr. ~53% vs. Lula ~47%. Quaest runoff polling (August 2026): Lula 43% vs. Bolsonaro Jr. 40% — within margin of error. Factors for Bolsonaro Jr.: right-wing runoff consolidation (2022 pattern), Lula approval below 40%, age factor (Lula, 80). Polymarket prices Bolsonaro Jr. at 41%.

Data basis for this prediction

Polymarket/Edgex Aggregat: Bolsonaro Jr. 41 % vs. Lula 36 % Gesamtgewinnwahrscheinlichkeit (pro.edgex.exchange, Stand September 2026)
AS/COA Poll Tracker: Quaest August 2026 – Stichwahl-Simulation Lula 43 % vs. Bolsonaro Jr. 40 % (as-coa.org)
Al Jazeera 15.08.2026: 'Lula holds slim lead over Flávio Bolsonaro ahead of Brazil election'
Wikipedia 2026 Brazilian general election: Erste Runde 4. Oktober, Stichwahl 25. Oktober 2026

Verdict: Miss

Lula (PT) gewann die Stichwahl am 25. Oktober 2026 mit 51,79 % der gültigen Stimmen gegen Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) mit 48,21 % (ca. 64,3 Mio. vs. 59,8 Mio. Stimmen). Die Vorhersage eines Bolsonaro-Jr.-Sieges trat also nicht ein. Laut NPR und CNBC war das Ergebnis eine Überraschung ('stunning victory'), da Flávio Bolsonaro im ersten Wahlgang noch vorne gelegen hatte. Entscheidend für Lulas Sieg war eine unerwartet hohe Wahlbeteiligung, die ihm genug zusätzliche Stimmen verschaffte. Die Polymarket-Preisbildung (~53 % Bolsonaro Jr. normiert auf den Zweikampf) unterschätzte die Mobilisierungsfähigkeit der Lula-Koalition in der Stichwahl. Quellen: orf.at ('Amtsinhaber Lula als Präsident wiedergewählt'), NPR ('In Stunning Victory, Brazil's Lula Wins Fourth Presidential Term'), CNBC ('Brazil election 2026: Lula wins historic fourth term').

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