🏛️ Politics · Next Month

Federal Reserve holds the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% on July 29, 2026

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 11. July 2026 · Predicted for 29. July 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle

Probability

78%

The Fed funds rate stands at 3.50–3.75% as of July 2026 following the 2025–2026 easing cycle (FOMC statement June 17, 2026). CME FedWatch: 78.1% probability of no change at the July 28–29 FOMC meeting, but a notable 21.9% probability of a rate hike is priced in (persistent inflation from energy/Middle East). Polymarket: 78% probability of 0 additional cuts in 2026. Base case is a hold — a hike would be a surprise but is not ruled out.

Data basis for this prediction

CME FedWatch: 78,1 % Hold, 21,9 % Hike am 29.07.2026 (Stand 08.07.2026, cmegroup.com)
Fed-Leitzins: 3,50–3,75 % (FOMC-Erklärung 17.06.2026, federalreserve.gov)
Polymarket: 78 % Chance auf 0 weitere Cuts in 2026 (Stand 11.07.2026, polymarket.com)
intellectia.ai / Yahoo Finance: Fed expected to hold at 3.50–3.75% July 29 (Juli-2026-Analyse)

Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

Verdict: Hit

Die Fed hat den Leitzins am 29. Juli 2026 erwartungsgemäß unverändert bei 3,50–3,75 % belassen. Das FOMC stimmte 9:3 für einen Hold – fünftes Meeting in Folge ohne Änderung. Drei Regionalbank-Präsidenten (Hammack, Kashkari, Logan) votierten für eine Erhöhung um 25 Basispunkte, was sich mit dem in der Vorhersage erwähnten Risiko eines Hikes deckt (21,9 % CME-Wahrscheinlichkeit). Die Basisannahme eines Holds trat ein, die erhöhte Inflation (Energie/Nahost) führte lediglich zu den Gegenstimmen, nicht zum Hike. Quellen: federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260729a.htm, cnbc.com/2026/07/29/fed-rate-decision-july-2026.html, foxbusiness.com/economy/federal-reserve-interest-rate-decision-july-29-2026

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