FDP fails to clear the 5% threshold at the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election (September 20, 2026) and does not enter the state parliament (confirmed by State Returning Officer MV or tagesschau.de)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 31. August 2026
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Predicted for 20. September 2026
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Based on: Statistical Pattern
Current polls (Wahlrecht.de, dawum.de, t-online) show the FDP at approximately 4% for the MV state election 2026, clearly below the 5% threshold. The FDP is not currently represented in the Schwerin state parliament and has historically rarely cleared the barrier in MV. The gap to the 5% mark (~1 percentage point) comfortably exceeds typical polling variance. No Polymarket market found; own estimate ~78% based on stable polling positions.
Data basis for this prediction
- t-online.de: MV-Wahl 2026 Umfrage – FDP bei ca. 4 %, BSW ebenfalls unter 5 % (August 2026)
- Wahlrecht.de: Sonntagsfrage Landtag MV – FDP ca. 4 %, AfD 36 %, SPD 29 % (August 2026)
- Wikipedia: Landtagswahl MV 2026 – FDP nicht im aktuellen Schweriner Landtag vertreten
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
The SPD received exactly 18.4% in the 2023 Berlin state election and has since been in opposition. Current polls (August/September 2026) put the SPD at 19–22%, making a result above 18.0% likely. Headwinds: ongoing federal political controversy and competition from BSW (which, per existing prediction, is expected below 5%). The 18.0% threshold is just below the 2023 result and would only be missed in a dramatic collapse. No Polymarket market; Metaculus aggregate implies ~65% for SPD above 18%.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Both current Berlin polls place the FDP far below the 5% threshold: INSA (Sept 2–4, 2026): 3.0%; Infratest dimap (Aug 27–31, 2026): FDP below the statistical detectable threshold. The Berlin FDP has not reached the 5% mark in any poll since spring 2026. Clearing the hurdle would require a simultaneous systematic error of 2+ points from both institutes — historically near-unprecedented. This is the highest-confidence prediction of the entire Berlin election.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Current polls show Liberalerna well below the 4% threshold: Indikator Opinion (fieldwork to September 4, 2026): 2.2%; PolitPro election trend (as of September 9, 2026): 2.7%. Neither institute identifies meaningful upward momentum. The party was part of the Tidö coalition but suffered from its image problems. Even with maximum systematic polling error of +1.5 points, Liberalerna would remain below 4.2%. Failing to enter the Riksdag would cost the governing coalition its parliamentary majority.