🏛️ Politics · Next Month

FDP fails to clear the 5% threshold at the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election (September 20, 2026) and does not enter the state parliament (confirmed by State Returning Officer MV or tagesschau.de)

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 31. August 2026 · Predicted for 20. September 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern

Probability

78%

Current polls (Wahlrecht.de, dawum.de, t-online) show the FDP at approximately 4% for the MV state election 2026, clearly below the 5% threshold. The FDP is not currently represented in the Schwerin state parliament and has historically rarely cleared the barrier in MV. The gap to the 5% mark (~1 percentage point) comfortably exceeds typical polling variance. No Polymarket market found; own estimate ~78% based on stable polling positions.

Data basis for this prediction

t-online.de: MV-Wahl 2026 Umfrage – FDP bei ca. 4 %, BSW ebenfalls unter 5 % (August 2026)
Wahlrecht.de: Sonntagsfrage Landtag MV – FDP ca. 4 %, AfD 36 %, SPD 29 % (August 2026)
Wikipedia: Landtagswahl MV 2026 – FDP nicht im aktuellen Schweriner Landtag vertreten

Verdict: Hit

Die FDP erzielte bei der Landtagswahl Mecklenburg-Vorpommern am 20. September 2026 lediglich 1,03 % der Zweitstimmen – weit unter der vorhergesagten ~4 % und deutlich unter der 5 %-Sperrklausel. Das endgültige Ergebnis wurde vom Landeswahlleiter Dr. Christian Boden am 30. September 2026 bestätigt (Quelle: laiv-mv.de, politik-mv.de). Die Vorhersage trat damit klar ein; das tatsächliche Ergebnis fiel sogar noch schwächer aus als erwartet. Überraschend war hingegen, dass auch CDU (4,9 %) und BSW (4,8 %) an der Hürde scheiterten.

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