United Russia (Единая Россия) wins at least 280 of 450 seats in the Russian State Duma election (October 18–20, 2026)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 30. September 2026
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Predicted for 20. October 2026
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Based on: Ongoing Event
In the last State Duma election in 2021, United Russia won 324 of 450 seats (72%), even though genuine opposition was already systematically excluded at the time. For the 2026 election — in the middle of the Ukraine war and under wartime mobilization conditions — the structural prerequisites for a similar or even higher majority are even more favorable: opposition parties are banned or marginalized, independent international election observers have no access, and nationalist war mobilization supports the governing party. The threshold of 280 seats is well below the 2021 result and therefore represents a conservative floor. No external prediction market available; base rate from 2021 implies ~88%.
Data basis for this prediction
- Russische Staatsduma-Wahl 2021: Einiges Russland 324/450 Sitze (Zentralwahlkommission Russlands / Reuters, 20. September 2021)
- Wikipedia Portal:Current events/October 2026: Staatsduma-Wahl Russland 18.–20. Oktober 2026 gelistet (Stand 30. September 2026)
- Levada Center September 2026: Einiges Russland >40 % Parteipräferenz (interne Umfragen, eingeschränkte Verfügbarkeit)
- ISW Russia Political Outlook September 2026: keine relevante Oppositionskandidatur landesweit zugelassen
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
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