Nobel Peace Prize 2026 awarded to Vanessa Nakate (Uganda)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 30. September 2026
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Predicted for 9. October 2026
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Based on: Speculative
Polymarket gives Vanessa Nakate 34% – the clear market leader – ahead of Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms (16.4% Polymarket) and Mark Carney (~14% Kalshi) as of September 29, 2026. Bookmaker odds of ~19/10 confirm the 34% estimate. The Norwegian Nobel Committee has repeatedly rewarded Global South and climate-justice narratives; Nakate, Uganda's Fridays for Future founder for Africa, unites both and would carry maximum symbolic impact. Total pool: 287 nominees. Announcement: October 9, 2026, 11:00 CEST, Oslo.
Data basis for this prediction
- Polymarket 'Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026': Nakate 34 %, Sudan ERRs 16,4 % (29.09.2026)
- Kalshi: Mark Carney 14 %, Sudan ERRs 14 % (29.09.2026)
- Oddschecker/Buchmacher: Nakate ~19/10 als Favorit (29.09.2026)
- nobelpeaceprize.org: 287 Nominierte, Bekanntgabe 9. Oktober 2026, Oslo
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
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