🏛️ Politics · Next Year

The Democratic Party (USA) wins a majority in the US House of Representatives after the Midterm elections (3 November 2026), securing at least 218 of 435 seats (confirmed by AP or Reuters)

Pending ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 26. July 2026 · Predicted for 3. November 2026 · Based on: Speculative

Probability

83%

Polymarket shows 86% probability for Democrats winning the House; $9M traded (as of 26 July 2026). Projections: Democrats 232 vs. Republicans 203 seats. Historical basis: the incumbent president's party loses ~26 seats on average in midterms (1946–2022); Republican majority after 2024 was only ~220–221 seats (buffer: ~3 seats). Kalshi shows similar Democratic lead; Senate race remains separate and closer. Structural risks: gerrymandering in GOP-controlled swing states. Slight downward deviation from Polymarket (86%) due to residual gerrymandering uncertainty.

Data basis for this prediction

Polymarket: Demokraten gewinnen US-Repräsentantenhaus 2026 = 86% (26.07.2026, $9 Mio. gehandelt)
kucoin.com/KuCoin News: Prediction Markets – Democratic House Takeover 86%, GOP Senate Edge ~51% (Juli 2026)
covers.com: 2026 Midterm Election Odds Tracker – Demokraten Haus-Favoriten
Brookings Institution: Historische Midterm-Verluste der Präsidenten-Partei Ø -26 Sitze (1946–2022)

Verdict: Pending

This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.

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