Democrats win majority in the US House of Representatives at the midterm elections (November 3, 2026, confirmed by AP or NBC News by November 5, 2026)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 3. September 2026
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Predicted for 3. November 2026
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Based on: Speculative
Historically, the incumbent president's party loses an average of 26 House seats in midterms (Congressional Research Service); in 18 of 21 midterms since 1934, the governing party lost seats. The ongoing US-Iran military conflict (confirmed NPR, Al Jazeera, September 2026) and economic tensions are likely to generate discontent against the governing party. The existing open Cassandra forecast covers only the Senate (GOP holds majority); the House is uncovered. No direct Polymarket market available; own estimate based on historical base rate (~65% of midterms result in House flip against governing party) weighed against current political headwinds: ~40%.
Data basis for this prediction
- NPR: US-Iran-Konflikt – Xi Ägypten-Besuch, geopolitische Lage September 2026 (3. September 2026)
- Congressional Research Service: Historische Midterm House-Ergebnisse 1934–2022
- Polymarket: Republikanische Partei hält US-Senat 2026 (offene Referenz-Vorhersage, Stand 2026)
- Al Jazeera: US-Iran-Militärlage und Naher Osten Sicherheitsarchitektur (3. September 2026)
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Spain holds a general election on 29 November 2026. Polymarket prices Feijóo as next PM at 85%, Kalshi at 82% — both serve as anchors. A separate Polymarket market gives PP+Vox a 92% probability of a joint majority (>176/350 seats). Current polls (Sondaxe) show PP at 29.2% narrowly ahead of PSOE (26.9%); Vox is tracking slightly higher. Feijóo failed to form a government in 2023, but market odds reflect the lesson learned: PP+Vox is now seen as stable enough. No deviation from market anchor warranted.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
With 97% of votes counted, Republican incumbent Roger Wicker leads by just 28 votes per NBC News live results (04.11.2026) — one of the closest Senate races in history. Mississippi election law requires an automatic recount when the margin falls below 0.5% of total votes, expected to conclude by 15–20 November. The remaining 3% of ballots originate primarily from rural precincts with historically higher Republican turnout, giving Wicker a slight statistical edge. No specific Polymarket market for Mississippi was identified.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Polymarket gives Peltola a 72% win probability (as of November 3, 2026). The Democrat benefits from Alaska's Ranked Choice Voting system, which structurally favors cross-partisan candidates, as well as strong support from the Indigenous population and Alaska Native organizations. The national environment weighs on Sullivan: Polymarket gives Democrats a 72–77% probability of winning the Senate majority and 95% in the House. Early mail-ballot returns show a slight pro-Democratic lean in Alaska. Because Alaska uses ranked choice, a final count is not expected until November 5.