Democrats win the majority in the US House of Representatives at the midterm elections (November 3, 2026)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 20. July 2026
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Predicted for 3. November 2026
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Based on: Speculative
Republicans currently hold a paper-thin 218:217 majority. Historically, the president's party loses an average of 26 House seats in midterms. Trump's approval ratings stand below 45% following the Iran war, tariffs, and spending cuts. Cook Political Report (July 2026) rates 22 Republican seats as toss-ups; Democrats need a net gain of only 5. The FiveThirtyEight model (July 2026) gives ~51% for a Democratic majority. Counter-factor: Gerrymandering in swing districts structurally limits gain potential. This prediction does not contradict the open Senate prediction (Democrats >50% for Senate).
Data basis for this prediction
- House-Mehrheit Juli 2026: 218 R : 217 D (Clerk of the House, Juli 2026)
- Cook Political Report: 22 republikanische Sitze als toss-up (Juli 2026)
- FiveThirtyEight House Forecast: ~51% Demokraten (Stand Juli 2026)
- Historische Midterm-Verluste Präsidentenpartei: Ø 26 Sitze (Brookings Institution)
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
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✦ AI
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