Quebec provincial election (5 October 2026): Parti Conservateur du Québec (PCQ) wins at least 12 seats in the National Assembly (125 seats, confirmed by Élections Québec by 6 October 2026)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 3. October 2026
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Predicted for 5. October 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
Léger polls from September 2026 show the PCQ at 17–27% vote share province-wide, with a particularly strong regional foothold in the Quebec City belt. Polymarket prices a 14–16 seat outcome at 32% probability; cumulative probability for ≥12 seats is estimated at 68–72%. Quebec's first-past-the-post system strongly favors geographically concentrated parties, and PCQ candidates lead comfortably in their strongholds. The 12-seat threshold is set deliberately below the Polymarket central projection, providing a conservative margin.
Data basis for this prediction
- Léger-Umfrage September 2026: PCQ ~20–27 % (Québec City), ~17–18 % provinzweit (Léger360.com)
- Polymarket: PCQ 14–16 Sitze bei 32 % (Stand 3. Oktober 2026, polymarket.com)
- The Writ / Éric Grenier: Sitzprojektionen Québec-Wahl 2026 (thewrit.ca, Oktober 2026)
- Élections Québec: Wahltermin 5. Oktober 2026, 125 Sitze (electionsquebec.qc.ca)
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
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