CDU earns more than 22.0% of votes at the Saxony-Anhalt state election (6 September 2026)
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 1. September 2026
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Predicted for 6. September 2026
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Based on: Statistical Pattern
infratest dimap LänderTREND SA (May 2026) puts the CDU under Minister-President Sven Schulze at approximately 26%; wahlrecht.de and dawum.de Sonntagsfragen confirm the 25–27% corridor (August 2026). In 2021, the CDU won 37.1% — despite heavy losses, a result below 22% with a polling gap of more than 4pp above the threshold is extremely unlikely. The t-online.de survey (August 2026) explicitly names CDU as the second-strongest force behind the AfD. No prediction market specifically covers CDU share.
Data basis for this prediction
- infratest dimap LänderTREND Sachsen-Anhalt Mai 2026: CDU ca. 26% (infratest-dimap.de)
- wahlrecht.de Sonntagsfragen Sachsen-Anhalt: CDU ~26% (August 2026)
- t-online.de Wahlumfrage SA 2026: AfD führt, CDU zweitstärkste Kraft ~25–27% (August 2026)
- Wikipedia Landtagswahl Sachsen-Anhalt 2026: CDU-Ergebnis 2021 = 37,1%
Verdict: Hit
[Vorzeitig entschieden] CDU erzielte 37,1 % — deutlich über 22 %. Quellen: Wikipedia, bpb.de.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
The SPD received exactly 18.4% in the 2023 Berlin state election and has since been in opposition. Current polls (August/September 2026) put the SPD at 19–22%, making a result above 18.0% likely. Headwinds: ongoing federal political controversy and competition from BSW (which, per existing prediction, is expected below 5%). The 18.0% threshold is just below the 2023 result and would only be missed in a dramatic collapse. No Polymarket market; Metaculus aggregate implies ~65% for SPD above 18%.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Both current Berlin polls place the FDP far below the 5% threshold: INSA (Sept 2–4, 2026): 3.0%; Infratest dimap (Aug 27–31, 2026): FDP below the statistical detectable threshold. The Berlin FDP has not reached the 5% mark in any poll since spring 2026. Clearing the hurdle would require a simultaneous systematic error of 2+ points from both institutes — historically near-unprecedented. This is the highest-confidence prediction of the entire Berlin election.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Current polls show Liberalerna well below the 4% threshold: Indikator Opinion (fieldwork to September 4, 2026): 2.2%; PolitPro election trend (as of September 9, 2026): 2.7%. Neither institute identifies meaningful upward momentum. The party was part of the Tidö coalition but suffered from its image problems. Even with maximum systematic polling error of +1.5 points, Liberalerna would remain below 4.2%. Failing to enter the Riksdag would cost the governing coalition its parliamentary majority.