🏛️ Politics · Next Month

CDU wins more than 5.0% of votes cast in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election (20 September 2026) and enters the state parliament, confirmed by the state returning officer

Miss ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 22. August 2026 · Predicted for 20. September 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle

Probability

88%

The most recent INSA poll for Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (field period 4-11 August 2026, via Nordkurier/dawum.de) shows CDU at 10%. For CDU to fall below 5%, it would need to halve its current polling — an unprecedented collapse in this state. BSW (4%) and FDP (3%) are the realistic candidates to miss the threshold; CDU explicitly is not. CDU has always exceeded 10% in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (2021: 28.8%; 2016: 19.0%). Estimated probability: 88%.

Data basis for this prediction

INSA/Nordkurier (Erhebung 4.–11. Aug 2026): AfD 36 %, SPD 29 %, Linke 11 %, CDU 10 %, Grüne 5 %, BSW 4 %, FDP 3 %
dawum.de/Mecklenburg-Vorpommern: Aggregierter MV-Wahltrend (Stand 22. Aug 2026)
t-online.de MV-Wahl (Aug 2026): BSW und FDP unter der Sperrklausel — CDU nicht erwähnt
Landeswahlleiter MV historisch: CDU-Ergebnisse 2021 (28,8 %), 2016 (19,0 %), 2011 (23,0 %)

Verdict: Miss

Die CDU erhielt bei der Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Landtagswahl am 20. September 2026 lediglich 4,9 % der Stimmen – knapp unter der 5-%-Sperrklausel – und verfehlte damit erstmals in der Geschichte der Bundesrepublik den Einzug in ein Landesparlament. Die Vorhersage (>5 %, Einzug bestätigt) ist damit nicht eingetreten. Der Einbruch von 13,4 % (2021: 13,3 %, Bundeswahl 2021: 28,8 %) auf 4,9 % war in dieser Größenordnung historisch beispiellos und ging weit über das hinaus, was die August-Umfragen (10 %) andeuteten. Quellen: bpb.de 'Landtagswahl in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern 2026: AfD stärkste Kraft – CDU verfehlt Einzug in den Landtag'; Wikipedia 'Landtagswahl in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern 2026'; Landtag MV vorläufiges amtliches Endergebnis.

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