Bündnis 90/Die Grünen fails to clear the 5% threshold at the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election (20 September 2026) and does not enter the Landtag (confirmed by Landeswahlleiter MV or tagesschau.de)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 29. August 2026
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Predicted for 20. September 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
PolitPro Election Trend MV (as of August 2026): Bündnis 90/Die Grünen stands at exactly 4.9% — just below the 5% threshold. Insa polls from August 2026 confirm 4–5%. Structurally, the party has a weak base in MV: they missed entry in 2016 (4.8%) and barely made it in 2021 (6.3%). Current polling lower bound and the national Greens' downward trend slightly favour failure. Genuine coin-flip scenario; prediction follows current polling lower bound.
Data basis for this prediction
- PolitPro MV Election Trend: Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 4,9 % (Stand August 2026, politpro.eu/en/mecklenburg-western-pomerania)
- Insa MV-Umfrage August 2026: Grüne 4–5 % (t-online.de, August 2026)
- Historisch MV: Grüne 2016: 4,8 % kein Einzug; 2021: 6,3 % Einzug — strukturell volatile Wählergruppe
- wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/mecklenburg-vorpommern.htm: Umfragen-Aggregat August 2026
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
The SPD received exactly 18.4% in the 2023 Berlin state election and has since been in opposition. Current polls (August/September 2026) put the SPD at 19–22%, making a result above 18.0% likely. Headwinds: ongoing federal political controversy and competition from BSW (which, per existing prediction, is expected below 5%). The 18.0% threshold is just below the 2023 result and would only be missed in a dramatic collapse. No Polymarket market; Metaculus aggregate implies ~65% for SPD above 18%.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Both current Berlin polls place the FDP far below the 5% threshold: INSA (Sept 2–4, 2026): 3.0%; Infratest dimap (Aug 27–31, 2026): FDP below the statistical detectable threshold. The Berlin FDP has not reached the 5% mark in any poll since spring 2026. Clearing the hurdle would require a simultaneous systematic error of 2+ points from both institutes — historically near-unprecedented. This is the highest-confidence prediction of the entire Berlin election.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Current polls show Liberalerna well below the 4% threshold: Indikator Opinion (fieldwork to September 4, 2026): 2.2%; PolitPro election trend (as of September 9, 2026): 2.7%. Neither institute identifies meaningful upward momentum. The party was part of the Tidö coalition but suffered from its image problems. Even with maximum systematic polling error of +1.5 points, Liberalerna would remain below 4.2%. Failing to enter the Riksdag would cost the governing coalition its parliamentary majority.