🏛️ Politics · Next Month

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen fails to clear the 5% threshold at the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election (20 September 2026) and does not enter the Landtag (confirmed by Landeswahlleiter MV or tagesschau.de)

Miss ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 29. August 2026 · Predicted for 20. September 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle

Probability

52%

PolitPro Election Trend MV (as of August 2026): Bündnis 90/Die Grünen stands at exactly 4.9% — just below the 5% threshold. Insa polls from August 2026 confirm 4–5%. Structurally, the party has a weak base in MV: they missed entry in 2016 (4.8%) and barely made it in 2021 (6.3%). Current polling lower bound and the national Greens' downward trend slightly favour failure. Genuine coin-flip scenario; prediction follows current polling lower bound.

Data basis for this prediction

PolitPro MV Election Trend: Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 4,9 % (Stand August 2026, politpro.eu/en/mecklenburg-western-pomerania)
Insa MV-Umfrage August 2026: Grüne 4–5 % (t-online.de, August 2026)
Historisch MV: Grüne 2016: 4,8 % kein Einzug; 2021: 6,3 % Einzug — strukturell volatile Wählergruppe
wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/mecklenburg-vorpommern.htm: Umfragen-Aggregat August 2026

Verdict: Miss

Die Vorhersage trat nicht ein. Bündnis 90/Die Grünen erzielten bei der Landtagswahl Mecklenburg-Vorpommern am 20. September 2026 laut vorläufigem amtlichen Endergebnis 5,7 % der Stimmen und zogen mit 5 Mandaten in den Landtag ein. Die 5%-Sperrklausel verfehlten stattdessen CDU (4,9 %) und BSW (4,8 %). Die Grünen übertrafen damit ihren Polling-Unterrand (ca. 4,9 %) deutlich. Quellen: landtag-mv.de (vorläufiges amtliches Endergebnis), bpb.de (Hintergrund aktuell zur Wahl 2026).

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