Bündnis 90/Die Grünen fail to clear the 5% threshold at the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election (September 20, 2026) and do not enter the Landtag (confirmed by the returning officer MV or tagesschau.de)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 31. August 2026
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Predicted for 20. September 2026
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Based on: Statistical Pattern
Current INSA polls (Aug 4–11, 2026, N=1,000) place the Greens in MV exactly at 5% — right on the threshold. Eastern German elections historically show pronounced tactical voting shifts: in Saxony and Thuringia 2024, the Greens failed despite national polling at 7–9%. In MV, the Greens have traditionally been weak (2021: 6.3%, barely made it in). The high AfD share (36%) and SPD dominance (29%) make tactical Green-friendly vote splitting less likely. No specific Polymarket market found; a genuine coin-flip.
Data basis for this prediction
- INSA-Umfrage MV 4.–11. August 2026: Grünen 5,0 % (t-online.de, infratest-dimap; N=1.000)
- MV Landtagswahl 2021: Grünen 6,3 % (knapper Einzug) – historische Referenz (wahlrecht.de)
- Grünen Sachsen/Thüringen 2024: scheiterten an 5%-Sperrklausel trotz höherer Bundesumfragen (tagesschau.de)
- MV Wahlrecht: 5%-Sperrklausel ohne Direktmandat-Überhangregelung für Kleine (wahlrecht.de)
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
The SPD received exactly 18.4% in the 2023 Berlin state election and has since been in opposition. Current polls (August/September 2026) put the SPD at 19–22%, making a result above 18.0% likely. Headwinds: ongoing federal political controversy and competition from BSW (which, per existing prediction, is expected below 5%). The 18.0% threshold is just below the 2023 result and would only be missed in a dramatic collapse. No Polymarket market; Metaculus aggregate implies ~65% for SPD above 18%.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Both current Berlin polls place the FDP far below the 5% threshold: INSA (Sept 2–4, 2026): 3.0%; Infratest dimap (Aug 27–31, 2026): FDP below the statistical detectable threshold. The Berlin FDP has not reached the 5% mark in any poll since spring 2026. Clearing the hurdle would require a simultaneous systematic error of 2+ points from both institutes — historically near-unprecedented. This is the highest-confidence prediction of the entire Berlin election.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Current polls show Liberalerna well below the 4% threshold: Indikator Opinion (fieldwork to September 4, 2026): 2.2%; PolitPro election trend (as of September 9, 2026): 2.7%. Neither institute identifies meaningful upward momentum. The party was part of the Tidö coalition but suffered from its image problems. Even with maximum systematic polling error of +1.5 points, Liberalerna would remain below 4.2%. Failing to enter the Riksdag would cost the governing coalition its parliamentary majority.