Bündnis 90/Die Grünen achieves more than 5.0% of votes cast in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election (September 20, 2026) and enters the state parliament, confirmed by the Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 23. August 2026
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Predicted for 20. September 2026
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Based on: Statistical Pattern
Latest INSA polls show the Greens at exactly 5% in MV (as of June 2026), gaining +1 point from earlier surveys (t-online.de, August 2026). The party is right at the parliamentary threshold. In the 2021 state election, the Greens narrowly missed with 4.4%. In eastern German rural states, Green support is structurally low; the trend can still shift before September. This prediction deliberately goes against the dominant East German trend: the razor-thin 5% mark makes this a genuine bet.
Data basis for this prediction
- INSA Umfrage MV: Grüne bei 5 % (t-online.de/dawum.de, Juni 2026)
- Landeswahlleiter MV: Grüne 4,4 % bei Landtagswahl 2021 (wahlen-mv.de)
- t-online.de: 'Schwesigs SPD bangt mit zwei Parteien' — Grüne bei exakt 5 % (August 2026)
- wahlrecht.de: Umfragenübersicht Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Landtagswahl 2026
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
The SPD received exactly 18.4% in the 2023 Berlin state election and has since been in opposition. Current polls (August/September 2026) put the SPD at 19–22%, making a result above 18.0% likely. Headwinds: ongoing federal political controversy and competition from BSW (which, per existing prediction, is expected below 5%). The 18.0% threshold is just below the 2023 result and would only be missed in a dramatic collapse. No Polymarket market; Metaculus aggregate implies ~65% for SPD above 18%.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Both current Berlin polls place the FDP far below the 5% threshold: INSA (Sept 2–4, 2026): 3.0%; Infratest dimap (Aug 27–31, 2026): FDP below the statistical detectable threshold. The Berlin FDP has not reached the 5% mark in any poll since spring 2026. Clearing the hurdle would require a simultaneous systematic error of 2+ points from both institutes — historically near-unprecedented. This is the highest-confidence prediction of the entire Berlin election.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Current polls show Liberalerna well below the 4% threshold: Indikator Opinion (fieldwork to September 4, 2026): 2.2%; PolitPro election trend (as of September 9, 2026): 2.7%. Neither institute identifies meaningful upward momentum. The party was part of the Tidö coalition but suffered from its image problems. Even with maximum systematic polling error of +1.5 points, Liberalerna would remain below 4.2%. Failing to enter the Riksdag would cost the governing coalition its parliamentary majority.