🏛️ Politics · Next Week

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen receives more than 15.0% of votes cast in the Berlin state election (September 20, 2026)

Miss ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 17. September 2026 · Predicted for 20. September 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle

Probability

63%

All current polls for the 2026 Berlin state election uniformly show the Greens at 16.0%: Forschungsgruppe Wahlen (Sep 10), Civey (Sep 10), Infratest dimap (Sep 9), INSA (Sep 14), and Forsa (Aug 18) all register 16.0% (PolitPro Election Trend: 16.0–16.1%). The 15.0% threshold sits roughly 1 percentage point below the polling figure. Given that historical deviations between polls and final results in Berlin can be ±2–3 percentage points, genuine uncertainty remains. No Polymarket figure available; calibrated using Berlin electoral history (2023: 9.4%, 2021: 18.9%) and consistent September polls.

Data basis for this prediction

Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, Civey, Infratest dimap, INSA, Forsa: Grüne jeweils 16,0 % (Umfragen 9.–14. September 2026, Wahlrecht.de / Dawum.de)
PolitPro Election Trend Berlin: Grüne 16,0–16,1 % (Stand 17. September 2026)
Berliner Abgeordnetenhauswahl 2023: Grüne 9,4 % – 2021: Grüne 18,9 % (Landeswahlleiter Berlin)
Wahltermin bestätigt: Abgeordnetenhauswahl Berlin, 20. September 2026 (Berlin.de)

Verdict: Miss

Die Grünen erzielten bei der Berliner Abgeordnetenhauswahl am 20. September 2026 laut vorläufigem amtlichem Ergebnis 14,3 % der Stimmen – und damit 0,7 Prozentpunkte unter der Schwelle von 15,0 %. Trotz konsistenter Umfragewerte von 16 % im September (u.a. Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, Infratest dimap, INSA) fiel das tatsächliche Ergebnis rund 1,7 Prozentpunkte hinter die Umfragen zurück. Das Ergebnis stellt zudem einen Verlust von ca. 4,1 Prozentpunkten gegenüber 2023 (18,4 %) dar. Die Vorhersage scheiterte daran, dass die Umfragen den Grünen-Wert systematisch überschätzten – ein in Berlin bereits 2023 beobachtetes Muster. Quellen: Wikipedia 'Wahl zum Abgeordnetenhaus von Berlin 2026', KAS-Wahlanalyse, Heinrich Böll Stiftung, Al Jazeera.

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