BSW (Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht) fails to clear the 5% threshold at the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election (September 20, 2026) and does not enter the Landtag (confirmed by state electoral authority or tagesschau.de)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 31. August 2026
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Predicted for 20. September 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
Two recent polls send conflicting signals: Infratest dimap NDR (July 2026) shows BSW at 4% — below the threshold — while INSA (June 2026) showed 6%. The more recent Infratest poll trends downward. BSW is losing national profile as Sahra Wagenknecht left the European Parliament and party consolidation has stalled. No prediction market trades this directly; based on polls and party trend, the probability of failing the threshold is estimated at approximately 58%.
Data basis for this prediction
- Infratest dimap NDR-Umfrage Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, Juli 2026: BSW 4 % (t-online.de, dawum.de)
- INSA-Umfrage Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, Juni 2026: BSW 6 % (wahlrecht.de)
- BSW-Bundestrend: Rückgang auf 3–5 % in Westdeutschland, 5–7 % in Ostdeutschland (Statista, August 2026)
- Landtagswahl MV, Datum: 20. September 2026 (Landeswahlleiter MV)
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
The SPD received exactly 18.4% in the 2023 Berlin state election and has since been in opposition. Current polls (August/September 2026) put the SPD at 19–22%, making a result above 18.0% likely. Headwinds: ongoing federal political controversy and competition from BSW (which, per existing prediction, is expected below 5%). The 18.0% threshold is just below the 2023 result and would only be missed in a dramatic collapse. No Polymarket market; Metaculus aggregate implies ~65% for SPD above 18%.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Both current Berlin polls place the FDP far below the 5% threshold: INSA (Sept 2–4, 2026): 3.0%; Infratest dimap (Aug 27–31, 2026): FDP below the statistical detectable threshold. The Berlin FDP has not reached the 5% mark in any poll since spring 2026. Clearing the hurdle would require a simultaneous systematic error of 2+ points from both institutes — historically near-unprecedented. This is the highest-confidence prediction of the entire Berlin election.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Current polls show Liberalerna well below the 4% threshold: Indikator Opinion (fieldwork to September 4, 2026): 2.2%; PolitPro election trend (as of September 9, 2026): 2.7%. Neither institute identifies meaningful upward momentum. The party was part of the Tidö coalition but suffered from its image problems. Even with maximum systematic polling error of +1.5 points, Liberalerna would remain below 4.2%. Failing to enter the Riksdag would cost the governing coalition its parliamentary majority.