🏛️ Politics · Next Month

BSW (Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht) fails to clear the 5% threshold at the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election (September 20, 2026) and does not enter the Landtag (confirmed by state electoral authority or tagesschau.de)

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 31. August 2026 · Predicted for 20. September 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle

Probability

58%

Two recent polls send conflicting signals: Infratest dimap NDR (July 2026) shows BSW at 4% — below the threshold — while INSA (June 2026) showed 6%. The more recent Infratest poll trends downward. BSW is losing national profile as Sahra Wagenknecht left the European Parliament and party consolidation has stalled. No prediction market trades this directly; based on polls and party trend, the probability of failing the threshold is estimated at approximately 58%.

Data basis for this prediction

Infratest dimap NDR-Umfrage Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, Juli 2026: BSW 4 % (t-online.de, dawum.de)
INSA-Umfrage Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, Juni 2026: BSW 6 % (wahlrecht.de)
BSW-Bundestrend: Rückgang auf 3–5 % in Westdeutschland, 5–7 % in Ostdeutschland (Statista, August 2026)
Landtagswahl MV, Datum: 20. September 2026 (Landeswahlleiter MV)

Verdict: Hit

Die Vorhersage ist eingetreten. BSW erzielte bei der Landtagswahl Mecklenburg-Vorpommern am 20. September 2026 laut vorläufigem amtlichen Endergebnis 4,8 % und scheiterte damit knapp an der 5%-Sperrklausel. Der Landtag setzt sich aus vier Fraktionen zusammen: AfD (38,2 %), SPD (35,5 %), Linke (6,5 %) und Grüne (5,7 %). BSW zog nicht ein. Quellen: landtag-mv.de (vorläufiges amtliches Endergebnis), wahlrecht.de, Wikipedia DE/EN zur Landtagswahl MV 2026.

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