🏛️ Politics · Next Month

BSW (Alliance Sahra Wagenknecht) fails to clear the 5% threshold at the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election (September 20, 2026) and does not enter parliament (confirmed by the state electoral authority of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern)

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 29. August 2026 · Predicted for 20. September 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern

Probability

68%

According to the latest polls from Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, BSW is clearly in the danger zone: Forsa/t-online (August 11, 2026) and Infratest dimap for NDR (July 9, 2026) each show BSW at 4%, while INSA (June 22, 2026) measured 6% as the highest recent reading. The trend shows stagnation without visible tailwind. BSW lacks a strong party infrastructure in MV, and the party's national profile is fading. No Polymarket market available; calibration based on poll data and the historical 'last mile' effect for small parties.

Data basis for this prediction

Forsa/t-online (11. Aug. 2026): BSW MV 4% (wahlrecht.de / t-online.de)
Infratest dimap für NDR (9. Jul. 2026): BSW MV 4% (wahlrecht.de)
INSA (22. Jun. 2026): BSW MV 6% – höchster gemessener Wert, seitdem rückläufig (wahlrecht.de)

Verdict: Hit

BSW erzielte bei der Landtagswahl in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern am 20. September 2026 exakt 4,8 % und scheiterte damit knapp an der 5%-Sperrklausel. Die Partei zog nicht in den Landtag ein. Quellen: de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Landtagswahl_in_Mecklenburg-Vorpommern_2026 sowie bpb.de (‚Landtagswahl in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern 2026: AfD stärkste Kraft, CDU verfehlt Einzug in den Landtag'). Die Vorhersage traf damit vollständig zu — BSW blieb unter der Hürde, konsistent mit den Umfragetrends, die das Partei auf 4 % sahen. Bemerkenswert: Auch die CDU scheiterte mit 4,9 % knapp.

Related Predictions

🏛️ Politics ✦ AI

Alberto Núñez Feijóo (PP) secures parliamentary majority with Vox coalition and becomes Spanish Prime Minister — General Election 29 November 2026 (confirmed by Junta Electoral Central or AP by 1 December 2026)

Spain holds a general election on 29 November 2026. Polymarket prices Feijóo as next PM at 85%, Kalshi at 82% — both serve as anchors. A separate Polymarket market gives PP+Vox a 92% probability of a joint majority (>176/350 seats). Current polls (Sondaxe) show PP at 29.2% narrowly ahead of PSOE (26.9%); Vox is tracking slightly higher. Feijóo failed to form a government in 2023, but market odds reflect the lesson learned: PP+Vox is now seen as stable enough. No deviation from market anchor warranted.

83%

Next Month · Predicted for 29. Nov 2026

🏛️ Politics ✦ AI

Roger Wicker (Republican) retains the US Senate seat in Mississippi after recount — confirmed by AP or NBC News by 20 November 2026

With 97% of votes counted, Republican incumbent Roger Wicker leads by just 28 votes per NBC News live results (04.11.2026) — one of the closest Senate races in history. Mississippi election law requires an automatic recount when the margin falls below 0.5% of total votes, expected to conclude by 15–20 November. The remaining 3% of ballots originate primarily from rural precincts with historically higher Republican turnout, giving Wicker a slight statistical edge. No specific Polymarket market for Mississippi was identified.

55%

Next Month · Predicted for 20. Nov 2026

🏛️ Politics ✦ AI

Mary Peltola (Democrat) wins the US Senate seat in Alaska against Dan Sullivan (Republican) — US Midterm Elections November 3, 2026 (confirmed by AP or NBC News by November 5, 2026)

Polymarket gives Peltola a 72% win probability (as of November 3, 2026). The Democrat benefits from Alaska's Ranked Choice Voting system, which structurally favors cross-partisan candidates, as well as strong support from the Indigenous population and Alaska Native organizations. The national environment weighs on Sullivan: Polymarket gives Democrats a 72–77% probability of winning the Senate majority and 95% in the House. Early mail-ballot returns show a slight pro-Democratic lean in Alaska. Because Alaska uses ranked choice, a final count is not expected until November 5.

72%

Next Week · Predicted for 5. Nov 2026