🏛️ Politics · Next Month

Brazilian presidential runoff (October 25, 2026): Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) defeats Flávio Bolsonaro and is confirmed as president (confirmed by TSE by October 26, 2026)

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 5. September 2026 · Predicted for 25. October 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle

Probability

56%

Polymarket prices Lula at 56% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 40% for the runoff (as of September 5, 2026). This prediction builds on the existing open prediction that no candidate achieves an absolute first-round majority (October 4). Lula benefits from incumbency, social spending (Bolsa Família expansion), and a broader coalition (PT + centrists). Bolsonaro Jr. mobilises the loyal right but carries his father's legal baggage and the polarisation costs of the Bolsonarismo brand.

Data basis for this prediction

Polymarket: Lula wins Brazil 2026 Presidential Election = 56 % (5.9.2026)
Polymarket: Flávio Bolsonaro wins = 40 % (5.9.2026)
TSE Brasilien Wahlkalender: 1. Wahlgang 4.10.2026, Stichwahl 25.10.2026

Verdict: Hit

Die Vorhersage ist eingetreten. Lula (PT) gewann die Stichwahl am 25. Oktober 2026 mit 51,79 % gegenüber Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) mit 48,21 % der gültigen Stimmen (64,26 Mio. vs. 59,83 Mio. Stimmen). Das TSE (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral) proklamierte das Ergebnis offiziell. Bemerkenswert: Flávio Bolsonaro hatte den ersten Wahlgang am 5. Oktober gewonnen (47,03 % vs. 45,16 %), sodass Lula im Stichwahl-Endspurt die Aufholjagd schaffte – historisch das erste Mal in Brasilien, dass ein nach Runde 1 zweitplatzierter Kandidat die Stichwahl gewann. Flávio Bolsonaro verweigerte die Konzession, erkannte das Ergebnis nicht an, während seine eigene Partei PL das Resultat akzeptierte. Quellen: TSE-Pressemitteilung (tse.jus.br, 26.10.2026), NPR (25.10.2026), CNBC (26.10.2026).

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