🏛️ Politics
· Next Month
Brazilian Presidential Election Runoff (October 25, 2026): Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) wins the runoff and remains President (confirmed by TSE or Globo by October 26, 2026)
Probability
65%
An existing Cassandra prediction forecasts that Lula leads the first round (October 4, 2026) with at least 45.0% and that a runoff becomes necessary. Historically, in Brazil, the first-round leader with such a margin has always won the runoff (2022: Lula over Bolsonaro 50.9%/49.1%; 2002: Lula over Serra 61.3%/38.7%). Lula benefits from his incumbent coalition and a fragmented opposition. No direct Polymarket market for the 2026 runoff outcome found (as of September 10, 2026); calibration based on historical patterns and current polling.
Data basis for this prediction
- Cassandra.news offene Vorhersage: Lula führt 1. Runde 2026 mit mind. 45,0 %, Stichwahl am 25. Oktober
- Brasilianische Wahlgeschichte TSE: Erstrundenführer gewann in 2002, 2018 und 2022 jeweils die Stichwahl
- Globo / Folha Umfragen August 2026: Lula mit Vorsprung im Stichwahl-Szenario (Aggregat)
- Polymarket.com Brasilianische Wahl 2026: Kein spezifischer Stichwahl-Markt verfügbar (Sept 10, 2026)
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.