🏛️ Politics · Next Month

2026 Brazilian Presidential Election: Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) wins the runoff on 25 October 2026

Miss ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 17. September 2026 · Predicted for 25. October 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle

Probability

52%

Polymarket gives 54% to Bolsonaro and 45% to Lula in the overall winner market (as of 17 Sept 2026). Runoff polls paint a near-perfect tie: Datafolha 46:44 for Lula, AtlasIntel 46.4:46.2 for Lula, PoderData 47:45 for Bolsonaro, Quaest 41:41. Polymarket capital weighting implies a slight right-wing mobilisation premium potentially underrepresented in traditional polling. Consistent with open Cassandra predictions: no first-round winner (>50%), Lula >37% and Bolsonaro >30% in Round 1, placing the runoff on 25 October.

Data basis for this prediction

Polymarket: Bolsonaro 54 %, Lula 45 % (Brasilien Endsieger-Markt, Stand 17.09.2026)
Datafolha Stichwahl-Umfrage Aug 2026: Lula 46 % vs. Bolsonaro 44 %
AtlasIntel Stichwahl-Umfrage Sept 2026: Lula 46,4 % vs. Bolsonaro 46,2 %
AS/COA Brazil Poll Tracker (Sept 2026): Erste Runde Lula 38 % / Bolsonaro 33 %

Verdict: Miss

Lula (PT) gewann die Stichwahl am 25. Oktober 2026 mit 51,79 % gegen Flávio Bolsonaro (48,21 %) und sicherte sich damit eine vierte Amtszeit. Bolsonaro hatte die erste Runde (4. Oktober) mit ~47 % vs. Lulas ~45 % zwar überraschend angeführt, verlor aber die Stichwahl. Polymarkets 54 %-Vorteil für Bolsonaro und die rechts-mobilisierungs-adjustierten Umfragen überschätzten den Bolsonaro-Effekt. Die Vorhersage war in Teilaspekten korrekt (Stichwahl fand statt, enger Ausgang), benannte aber den falschen Gewinner. Quellen: NPR (25.10.2026), CNBC (26.10.2026), ZDF heute, bpb.de.

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