2026 Brazilian Presidential Election: Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) wins the runoff on 25 October 2026
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 17. September 2026
·
Predicted for 25. October 2026
·
Based on: Historical Cycle
Polymarket gives 54% to Bolsonaro and 45% to Lula in the overall winner market (as of 17 Sept 2026). Runoff polls paint a near-perfect tie: Datafolha 46:44 for Lula, AtlasIntel 46.4:46.2 for Lula, PoderData 47:45 for Bolsonaro, Quaest 41:41. Polymarket capital weighting implies a slight right-wing mobilisation premium potentially underrepresented in traditional polling. Consistent with open Cassandra predictions: no first-round winner (>50%), Lula >37% and Bolsonaro >30% in Round 1, placing the runoff on 25 October.
Data basis for this prediction
- Polymarket: Bolsonaro 54 %, Lula 45 % (Brasilien Endsieger-Markt, Stand 17.09.2026)
- Datafolha Stichwahl-Umfrage Aug 2026: Lula 46 % vs. Bolsonaro 44 %
- AtlasIntel Stichwahl-Umfrage Sept 2026: Lula 46,4 % vs. Bolsonaro 46,2 %
- AS/COA Brazil Poll Tracker (Sept 2026): Erste Runde Lula 38 % / Bolsonaro 33 %
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
The latest PolitPro polling (September 17, 2026) shows Berlin SPD at only 12.1% — a dramatic collapse from 18.4% in the 2023 repeat election. The party ranks 6th behind Die Linke (20.6%), CDU (19.9%), AfD (17.8%), and Grüne (16.0%). SPD suffers from national coalition disputes, loss of working-class voters to AfD and Die Linke, and a weak Berlin lead candidate. Surging above 14% in the remaining 72 hours before the election would require a swing of ~+2 percentage points — statistically very unlikely with opinions largely crystallized. The 14% threshold is 1.9 points above the polling average. No prediction market covers this specific SPD threshold for Berlin.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
PolitPro Election Trend (as of September 15, 2026) puts KPRF at 15.8% — well above its historical baseline of 8–10%. In Russia's wartime environment, the Communist Party channels both regime-loyal protest voters and latent anti-war sentiment with no other legal outlet. Historically, KPRF got 18.9% in 2021 (strong protest vote) but only 13.3% in 2016. Official counts in Russia frequently deviate downward from polls due to vote manipulation favouring United Russia, creating genuine risk the formal result stays below 15.0%. No Polymarket or Kalshi market found for this event.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
The aggregated Berlin election trend (as of Sep 17, 2026) shows Die Linke at 20.6% and the CDU at 19.9% — a margin of only 0.7 percentage points. Die Linke has consistently led narrowly since August 2026, benefiting from structural mobilisation advantages in left-leaning districts (Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg, Prenzlauer Berg). The extremely tight polling margin implies significant residual uncertainty; a CDU late surge or election-day swing is realistic. No Polymarket coverage for this specific outcome.