🏛️ Politics · Next Month

Brazilian presidential election, 1st round (October 4, 2026): Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) receives more than 42.0% of votes cast (confirmed by Tribunal Superior Eleitoral or Reuters by October 5, 2026)

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 21. September 2026 · Predicted for 4. October 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern

Probability

62%

Lula da Silva leads Brazilian polls as incumbent president. His main opponent Flávio Bolsonaro (PL, son of election-banned Jair Bolsonaro) mobilizes the Bolsonarist base but lags significantly. The open platform prediction 'no candidate above 50% in round 1' implies Lula's share between 40% and 49%; specifying >42% (below the absolute majority threshold) is informative and contradicts no existing prediction. Polymarket sees Lula winning the runoff at >80% probability (indirect calibration for first-round share). Own estimate for >42% in round 1: ~62%.

Data basis for this prediction

Brasilianische Präsidentschaftswahl, 1. Wahlgang: 4. Oktober 2026 (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral)
Polymarket: Lula gewinnt Stichwahl >80 % Wahrscheinlichkeit (indirekte Kalibrierung, Sept. 2026)
Cassandra-Plattform offen: 'Lula gewinnt Stichwahl gegen Flávio Bolsonaro am 25. Oktober 2026'
Cassandra-Plattform offen: 'Stichwahl erforderlich — kein Kandidat über 50 % in Runde 1 (4. Oktober 2026)'

Verdict: Hit

Lula da Silva erzielte im 1. Wahlgang am 4. Oktober 2026 laut TSE-Auszählung (99,9 % ausgezählt) 45,16 % der gültigen Stimmen (53.879.538 Stimmen) — damit klar über der Schwelle von 42,0 %. Quellen: TSE (tse.jus.br), Americas Quarterly, Rio Times Online. Beide Kandidaten (Lula 45,16 %, Flávio Bolsonaro 47,03 %) zogen in den 2. Wahlgang am 25. Oktober 2026 ein, was auch die implizierte Bedingung 'kein Kandidat über 50 %' bestätigt.

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