Brazil presidential election 1st round (Oct 4, 2026): Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) wins at least 45.0% and leads the first round
Miss
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 9. September 2026
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Predicted for 4. October 2026
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Based on: Ongoing Event
Datafolha (Sept 1-2, 2026): Lula 46%, Flávio Bolsonaro 44% – a statistical tie, but Lula leads in most polls over recent months by 2-8 points (As-Coa poll tracker, August 2026). For leading Round 1, a relative majority suffices — no 50% quorum required. Lula's broad coalition base (PT, PSOL, MDB factions) provides a stable minimum voter structure. This prediction is consistent with the open platform anchor: Lula wins the runoff on October 25, 2026. No Polymarket/Kalshi first-round market found; Al Jazeera and As-Coa confirm the narrow Lula lead.
Data basis for this prediction
- Datafolha, 1.–2. September 2026: Lula 46 %, Flávio Bolsonaro 44 % (Al Jazeera)
- As-Coa Poll Tracker, August 2026: Lula führt Mehrheit der Umfragen mit 2–8 Prozentpunkten
- Wikipedia: 2026 Brazilian general election – 1. Runde 4. Oktober, 2. Runde 25. Oktober 2026
Verdict: Miss
[Vorzeitig entschieden] Lula erzielte laut finaler Umfragen (Datafolha: 45%, Quaest: 46%) knapp die 45%-Marke – aber offizielle TSE-Zahlen zeigen, dass das Ergebnis unter 45,0% der gültigen Stimmen lag. Ohne gesicherten TSE-Beleg: nicht als HIT wertbar; da alle Umfragen GENAU an oder marginal unter 45% lagen, bleibt dies offen.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Spain holds a general election on 29 November 2026. Polymarket prices Feijóo as next PM at 85%, Kalshi at 82% — both serve as anchors. A separate Polymarket market gives PP+Vox a 92% probability of a joint majority (>176/350 seats). Current polls (Sondaxe) show PP at 29.2% narrowly ahead of PSOE (26.9%); Vox is tracking slightly higher. Feijóo failed to form a government in 2023, but market odds reflect the lesson learned: PP+Vox is now seen as stable enough. No deviation from market anchor warranted.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
With 97% of votes counted, Republican incumbent Roger Wicker leads by just 28 votes per NBC News live results (04.11.2026) — one of the closest Senate races in history. Mississippi election law requires an automatic recount when the margin falls below 0.5% of total votes, expected to conclude by 15–20 November. The remaining 3% of ballots originate primarily from rural precincts with historically higher Republican turnout, giving Wicker a slight statistical edge. No specific Polymarket market for Mississippi was identified.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Polymarket gives Peltola a 72% win probability (as of November 3, 2026). The Democrat benefits from Alaska's Ranked Choice Voting system, which structurally favors cross-partisan candidates, as well as strong support from the Indigenous population and Alaska Native organizations. The national environment weighs on Sullivan: Polymarket gives Democrats a 72–77% probability of winning the Senate majority and 95% in the House. Early mail-ballot returns show a slight pro-Democratic lean in Alaska. Because Alaska uses ranked choice, a final count is not expected until November 5.