🏛️ Politics · Next Month

Brazilian presidential election 1st round (October 4, 2026): Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) advances to the run-off on October 25, 2026 (confirmed by Tribunal Superior Eleitoral by October 5, 2026)

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 8. September 2026 · Predicted for 4. October 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle

Probability

90%

Lula da Silva (80, PT) runs as incumbent for a fourth term. Current polls (AS/COA Poll Tracker, August 2026): Lula ~38%, Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) ~30%, Augusto Cury ~11%, rest <21%. An outright majority in the first round (>50%) is virtually impossible — since 2002, every Brazilian presidential election has gone to a run-off. Lula staying within the top 2 candidates and thus advancing to the run-off is considered near-certain: equivalent prediction markets place this at >88%. Complementary Cassandra forecast to the existing open prediction on Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicanos) also advancing to the run-off.

Data basis for this prediction

AS/COA Brazil 2026 Poll Tracker: Lula ~38 %, Flávio Bolsonaro ~30 % (Stand August 2026)
Al Jazeera: 'Lula holds slim lead over Flávio Bolsonaro ahead of Brazil election' (15. August 2026)
Polymarket-äquivalenter Markt: Lula in Stichwahl >88 % (Stand September 2026)
TSE Wahltermine: 1. Runde 4. Oktober, Stichwahl 25. Oktober 2026 (tse.jus.br)

Verdict: Hit

[Vorzeitig entschieden] Lula (PT) zog in die Stichwahl am 25. Oktober ein; führte ersten Wahlgang mit ~45-46% (Datafolha/AtlasIntel) vor Flávio Bolsonaro. Runoff durch TSE-Schnellauszählung bestätigt. Quelle: Bloomberg Wahlergebnisse, Reuters/Datafolha.

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