🏛️ Politics · Next Week

Bev Craig (Labour) wins Greater Manchester Mayoral by-election (30 July 2026)

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 26. July 2026 · Predicted for 30. July 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle

Probability

98%

Polymarket prices Bev Craig (Labour) at 99%. The by-election — the largest in British history, with over 2 million eligible voters — was triggered when Andy Burnham won the Makerfield parliamentary seat. Reform UK's Sian Astley and the Green candidate Geraldine Coggins are considered long shots. Labour has held Greater Manchester uninterruptedly since 2017.

Data basis for this prediction

Polymarket: 99 % (Stand 26.07.2026)
Wikipedia: 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral by-election
ITV Granada: 'Everything you need to know about the Greater Manchester mayoral election' (30.06.2026)
WhoCanIVoteFor.co.uk: Kandidatenliste Greater Manchester Mayor 2026

Verdict: Hit

Bev Craig (Labour) gewann die Bürgermeisterwahl Greater Manchester am 30. Juli 2026 klar: Im zweiten Wahlgang besiegte sie Reform-UK-Kandidatin Sian Astley mit 66 % zu 34 % (309.525 zu 157.178 Stimmen). Im ersten Wahlgang erzielte Craig 47,15 %, Reform UK kam auf ca. 21 %. Die Vorhersage trifft vollständig zu. Einzige Abweichung vom prognostizierten Auslöser: Andy Burnham wurde nicht nur Unterhausabgeordneter, sondern trat das Amt als Premierminister an (seit 20. Juli 2026) — was den Sieg für Craig sogar noch sicherer machte. Die Wahlbeteiligung lag mit 25 % sehr niedrig, was Labours organisatorischem Vorteil zusätzlich zugutekam. Quellen: Wikipedia '2026 Greater Manchester mayoral by-election', RTÉ News (01.08.2026), NY1/AP (31.07.2026).

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