🏛️ Politics · Tomorrow

Berlin House of Representatives Election (September 20, 2026): Die Linke wins more than 19.5% of votes cast

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 17. September 2026 · Predicted for 20. September 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern

Probability

68%

All four recent polls show Die Linke clearly above 19.5%: BerlinTrend infratest dimap (Sept 7–9): 21%, Forsa: 22%, PolitPro Election Trend: 20.6%, INSA (Sept 7–14): 20%. Die Linke is 0.6–2.5 percentage points above the threshold in all surveys. No Polymarket anchor available; calibration based on polling aggregate. Distinct from the existing 'strongest party (ahead of CDU)' prediction: even if CDU narrowly leads, the 19.5% threshold is likely exceeded. CDU is at 19.9–21% — a near tie that leaves both scenarios open.

Data basis for this prediction

BerlinTrend infratest dimap/ARD, 7.–9. Sept. 2026: Die Linke 21 %, CDU 20 %, AfD 18 %
Forsa-Umfrage Berlin, Sept. 2026: Die Linke 22 %, CDU 18 %, AfD 18 %
PolitPro Election Trend Berlin, Stand 17.09.2026: Die Linke 20,6 %, CDU 19,9 %
INSA-Umfrage Berlin, 7.–14. Sept. 2026: Die Linke 20 %, CDU 20 %, AfD 18 %, Grüne 16 %, SPD 12 %

Verdict: Hit

Die Linke erzielte bei der Berliner Abgeordnetenhauswahl am 20. September 2026 laut Hochrechnung/vorläufigem Ergebnis 25,7 % der Stimmen – damit wurde die Schwelle von 19,5 % deutlich um rund 6,2 Prozentpunkte übertroffen. Die Linke wurde sogar stärkste Kraft, vor CDU (18,8 %), AfD (16,3 %) und Grünen (14,3 %). Quellen: bpb.de (Hintergrund aktuell zur Abgeordnetenhauswahl 2026), zdfheute.de (Grafiken zur Wahl Berlin 2026), Wikipedia (Wahl zum Abgeordnetenhaus von Berlin 2026).

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