Bank of Japan holds its policy rate unchanged at 1.00 percent at the October 29–30, 2026 meeting
Miss
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 27. September 2026
·
Predicted for 30. October 2026
·
Based on: Historical Cycle
The Bank of Japan meets on October 29–30, 2026, and simultaneously publishes its quarterly Outlook Report. The policy rate stands at approximately 1.00% following the last hike in June 2026. Polymarket data (polymarkettrader.com, September 2026) implies approximately 78% probability of unchanged rates in October. All major surveys show clear majorities of economists expecting a pause: the BoJ is awaiting more sustainable wage growth and a more stable core inflation trend before acting again. Additional signal: the Swiss National Bank (SNB) held its policy rate unchanged at 0.00% on September 24, 2026 (CNBC) — a further indication of a broad central bank pause mode in developed markets. A surprise hike is only possible if the October CPI flash signals a significant acceleration.
Data basis for this prediction
- Polymarket: Bank of Japan October 2026 market – ~78% Wahrscheinlichkeit Pause (polymarkettrader.com, September 2026)
- BoJ Sitzungskalender: 29.–30. Oktober 2026 inkl. Quarterly Outlook Report (financecalendar.com)
- CNBC: SNB belässt Leitzins unverändert bei 0,00% am 24. September 2026 (cnbc.com)
- BoJ Leitzins ~1,00% nach Anhebung Juni 2026 (Reuters / financecalendar.com)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Miss
[Vorzeitig entschieden] BoJ-Leitzins war zum 29./30. Oktober 2026 bereits 1,25% (nach September-Anhebung), nicht 1,00%. Quelle: Bloomberg
📈 Economy
✦ AI
September 2026 PPI surprised massively at +1.3% MoM (consensus: +0.6%) — a 2× factor. October consensus is +0.4% MoM; the YoY rate is expected to mark the 'biggest yearly rise since 2022' (stocktitan.net). Gold is already under pressure at ~$3,969 as the market prices in steeper Fed rate hike bets for December 2026 (fxleaders.com). Given the persistent PPI upside surprise streak and a robust producer price environment, the probability of another consensus beat is ~57%. No direct Polymarket anchor available for this event.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
No direct market price available; historical beat rate and company guidance provide strong signal: TJX has beaten EPS consensus in each of the last 12 consecutive quarters (100% beat rate, avg. beat margin +5.8%). Most recently Q2 FY2027: reported $1.22 vs. $1.19 expected. Company's own Q3 guidance is $1.36–$1.38, both above the Street consensus of $1.34. The off-price segment benefits structurally from trading-down dynamics in an inflationary consumer environment.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Deere & Company reports Q4 FY2026 results (August–October 2026) on November 25, 2026 after market close. EPS consensus: $4.03/share (FY2026 full-year estimate: $18.11; Q4 FY2025 comparison EPS: $3.93). Deere has beaten EPS expectations in 11 of the last 13 quarters (84.6% beat rate). The consensus is only +2.5% above the prior-year quarter, favoring a beat at normal outperformance rates. The company benefits from strong precision agriculture demand, service/parts pricing power, and structural farm productivity demand. No Polymarket market; probability estimated at 65% based on historical 84.6% beat rate, discounted for ag-cycle uncertainty.