📈 Economy · Next Month

Bank of England holds Bank Rate unchanged at 3.75% on 30 July 2026

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 13. July 2026 · Predicted for 30. July 2026 · Based on: Ongoing Event

Probability

90%

The Bank of England held Bank Rate at 3.75% with a 7-2 MPC vote on 18 June 2026. For the 30 July meeting, SONIA futures price a 90.7% probability of a hold (centralbank.watch, as of 13 July 2026). A rate cut is priced at ~0%. Supporting factors: UK CPI remains well above 2.0% (open Cassandra prediction: UK CPI above 2.7% YoY by 22 July); weak retail data dampens consumption expectations but does not justify easing. The MPC awaits further evidence on wage inflation and services prices.

Data basis for this prediction

Bank of England: Bank Rate 3,75 %, MPC-Abstimmung 7:2, 18.06.2026 (bankofengland.co.uk)
SONIA-Terminmarkt: 90,7 % Hold-Wahrscheinlichkeit 30. Juli 2026 (centralbank.watch, 13.07.2026)
HOA.org.uk: BoE Zinsprognosen Juli 2026 – Halten erwartet (13.07.2026)
UK CPI Juni 2026 erwartet >2,7 % YoY (offene Cassandra-Vorhersage, Veröffentlichung 22.07.2026)

Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

Verdict: Hit

Die Bank of England hat den Leitzins am 30. Juli 2026 wie vorhergesagt unverändert bei 3,75 % belassen. Der MPC stimmte mit 6:3 für eine Beibehaltung – drei Mitglieder (Huw Pill, Megan Greene, Catherine Mann) votierten für eine Erhöhung auf 4,0 %, was gegenüber Juni (7:2) eine hawkischere Zusammensetzung darstellt, aber das Ergebnis (keine Änderung) entspricht exakt der Vorhersage. Als Belastungsfaktor werden gestiegene und volatile Energiepreise infolge von Ereignissen im Nahen Osten genannt, die die Inflationsrisiken erhöhen. Quellen: Bank of England (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/july-2026), Fortune (https://fortune.com/2026/07/30/bank-of-england-keeps-interest-rates-at-3-75-for-fifth-time-this-year/)

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